Brian Matusz:
Matusz is putting the finishing touches on what should be a season that lands him in contention for the rookie of the year award. Matusz allowed just 2 hits, 2 BB’s, and 1 ER over 6 strong innings against the Tigers. He struck out 9 and has now posted a 2.14 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the final 2 months of the season (encompassing 11 starts). His K Rate has bumped up nicely as the season has worn on and he’s limiting LD’s at a higher rate. Pitching in the difficult AL East will always give Matusz a tougher road to hoe than many other SP’s but a look at his skill set and there’s little difference between say he and Phil Hughes. The W potential won’t be the same, but my guess is Matusz will produce similar numbers and go 3-5 rounds later in drafts next season. It will be interesting to see how much hype comes from the strong final 2 months of the season as that will ultimately determine how much of a sleeper Matusz is for 2011.
David Price:
I guess the Rays couldn’t convince the Royals official scorer to give David Price his 20th win of the season. With the Rays starter Andy Sonnanstine going just 2 1/3 innings, the Win decision was left to the hands of the official scorer who gave it to Chad Qualls, the first man out of the bullpen. Price ended up pitching a perfect 5th inning while striking out 1. Price has made tremendous improvements this season in both his K and BB Rates but he’ll enter 2011 with some serious red flags. First the peripherals suggest he’s been fortunate with his LOB% and his HR/FB Rate which have supressed his ERA nearly ¾ of a run. Secondly, he’ll finish the regular season having eclipsed his career high in innings by over 45 innings with more post-season innings to tack onto that. There have been some studies done to disprove Tom Verducci’s 30-inning rule for young pitchers that was more of an observation that Verducci noted SP’s who have an innings jump of more than 30 have a higher risk of injury. Whether you believe in the rule or not Price will have eclipsed that number handily and seen his season extend into October. The innings jump coupled with production better than the peripherals suggest Price will be an overvalued commodity in 2011.
Dayan Viciedo:
Despite the White Sox being out of it for a while its taken a while for Dayan Viciedo to get some consistent playing time. He started for the third consecutive day on Saturday night and knocked out his 2nd HR in those three starts and his 5th HR on the season in 102 PA’s. While the power has been impressive, he’s only walked twice at the major league level and walked just 11 times in 363 PA’s at AA. It’s unclear if Viciedo will be given a chance to earn major league time next season, but the lack of plate discipline will be a concern. He has enough pop to knock out 20 HR’s but in larger samples he’ll get taken advantage of and struggle to hit above .250. The small sample size at the big league level has some things to be excited about, but I’m not buying Viciedo as big league ready and even if he wins the 3B job out of spring training next year, I likely won’t be investing in him in 2011 outside of AL only formats.
Peter Bourjos:
The Angels willingness to slide Torri Hunter over to RF and commit to Peter Bourjos for the remainder of the 2010 season sure makes it look like they’ll be willing to give Bourjos every opportunity to win the CF job out of spring training. He’s struggled to adapt to big league pitching posting ugly peripherals: 3% BB Rate, 22% K Rate with just a 10% LD Rate, so it will be interesting to see what kind of rope he’s given in the spring. In his first year at AAA Bourjos was tremendous hitting .316/.364/.498. His EYE left something to be desired at just .30 and we’re seeing that play out at the big league level now. He does have a nice power-speed combination if he can adjust to big league pitching so he’ll be someone to keep an eye on next spring.
Justin Smoak:
Smoak has stayed red hot to finish out the season as he collected 2 more extra base hits on Saturday night in a 2-4 effort. The hits extending his hitting streak to 9 games and he’s racked up 3 HR’s and 3 2B’s in his last 6 games. I really thought Smoak would excel in the 2nd half as the weather warmed up in Texas but he just couldn’t translate the strong peripherals into production and then was shipped off to Seattle, destroying his 2010 value. I still believe strongly in Smoak’s skills and while the home park and lineup protection won’t help Smoak much in 2011, I do think we’ll see a nice .270-25 HR campaign. He’ll be a late round mixed league selection and a nice mid-rd sleeper in AL only formats.
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