Ryan Dempster:
Dempster looked to be on his way to breaking a trend of alternating good and bad months this season as he entered Thursday night’s start with a 1.45 ERA in September after posting a solid 2.89 ERA. Unfortunately the SF Giants did their best to make sure that trend continued as they roughed up Dempster 9 ER’s on 7 hits, 2 BB’s and 2 HBP in just 1 2/3 innings. As you can tell by the stat-line Dempster’s command just wasn’t there and that’s been an alarming trend for Dempster this season. He had made himself over rather miraculously after a bullpen career that was marred with command issues as a sub 3.00 BB/9 starter. He’d lowered that BB Rate for each of the last two seasons, but it’s jumped back out of control this year as it approaches 4.00. The increased BB’s have come with a slight increase in his K Rate which has helped limit some of the damage overall, but it’s also made him susceptible to some disastrous outings. With a BB/9 near 4.00 or in the high 3’s, he’s going to have a tough time being the solid #2 fantasy SP he had transformed himself into and more likely will settle back in as a mid-rotation starter with good K potential but risky WHIP contributions.
Cameron Maybin:
Maybin’s showing some mild improvements since his recall as he’s posting a very solid .211 ISO and improved his batted ball data by hitting more LD’s and getting more loft on the ball in general (19% LD Rate, 46% FB Rate). He’s even drawing BB’s at a solid 12% clip. But because of contact issues his overall numbers continue to be middling: .213/.324/.410. He’s struck out 19 times in 61 AB’s and while a .194 BHIP% is certainly masking some batting average upside, Maybin’s going to have a hard time being a consistent fantasy asset while striking out in 30% of his PA’s. He’ll get another crack at a starting OF job in spring training next season and while his tools remain intriguing, fantasy owners will want to see Maybin display contact improvements before investing in him.
Andre Ethier:
If you don’t own Andre Ethier this season you probably don’t realize how frustrating the ride has been. Ethier started the season on fire, hitting an incredible .392/.457/.744 through the season’s first 33 games while collecting 25 Runs, 11 HR’s, and 38 RBI’s. The triple crown pace raised expectations and only furthered the notion that owners had coming into the season that Ethier’s breakout 2009 season was just the beginning. But then everything took a turn for the worse when Ethier broke his pinky. He slumped through two awful months in June and July, posting a combined OPS right around .700 while only tallying 5 HR’s and 21 RBI’s. He recovered in August, but has slumped again in September. For the season very little actually looks different when compared to Ethier’s 2009 breakout. He’s posting a 10.1% BB Rate and 20% K Rate compared to 10.5% and 19.5% last season and his ISO remains solid at .208 (.237 last year). He continues to hit line drives at a great clip (21.6%) and he’s become a bit more of a well round hitter, posting positive run values across all pitches (was previously a fastball killer). So what’s the difference you ask? Well quite simply lineup support and health. Last year Ethier scored 92 times and drove in 106 in 160 games played. This season Ethier’s only tallied 67 Runs and 78 RBI’s in 130 games a pace of just 82 Runs and 96 RBI’s over a 160 game span. Diving in on the data, the Dodgers #1 and #2 hitters this season have combined for a .336 OBP compared to a .346 OBP in 2009. That 10 point difference might not seem like much but that’s the source of Ethier’s decreased RBI pace and when you look at the hitters Slugging % behind Andre Ethier (Mr. Kemp I’m looking at you), you’ll have a better understanding of why Ethier’s Run totals have declined as well. Looking ahead, Ethier looks like a really nice bet to continue to be an elite hitter, but how much fantasy value he has will largely depend on who the Dodgers decide to hit infront of him next season.
Hiroki Kuroda:
I’ve commented a few times how Kuroda is one of my favorite “forgotten” pitchers from a fantasy perspective. I end up snagging him late in drafts or picking him up early in the season when other owners chase sexy breakout candidates and Kuroda always seems to deliver. He was magnificent on Thursday night limiting the Padres to just 6 base-runners and 1 ER over 8 strong innings. He walked just 1 and struck out 4 while picking up his 11th win of the season. Kuroda hasn’t received very much if any run support this season which explains his 11-13 record, but with a 3.27 ERA and 1.16 WHIP he’s quietly been a Top 30 SP this season. Max Scherzer, Tim Lincecum, Colby Lewis, and Yovani Gallardo all have more perceived value because of the great K Rates, but Kuroda is ranked higher than all of them on ESPN’s Player Rater. At 35, he’s improved his GB Rate to over 50% and upped his K Rate to a solid 7.25 K/9. Yes, he’s walking a few more batters this season but he’s still limiting walks to just 2.2 BB/9. He’ll be a FA this offseason and in my opinion is the 2nd best FA SP on the market. Depending on where he lands, his fantasy value could be impacted as his ratios get a big boost from playing in the pitcher friendly NL West, so we’ll have to see how we adjust his fantasy value going forward, but personally Kuroda remains one of the biggest under the radar fantasy SPs in all of baseball.
Mat Latos:
Latos’ late season struggles continued on Thursday night as he allowed 3 ER’s in 5 innings to the Dodgers. Watching Latos, there weren’t big time velocity issues as he was still throwing hard, but his fastball didn’t have the extra life to put away hitters. Many times he got ahead in the count 0-2 and was unable to finish off the AB’s. He needed 91 pitches to get through 5+ and for a pitcher who has been extremely efficient (16 Pitches/IP) all season, I believe there is evidence that he’s tiring. Latos previous career high in IP was 123 IP which he accomplished last season. He cruised through that number in August and looked to be pitching the best he had all season. In the 6 starts immediately after crossing that threshold Latos posted just a 1.38 ERA with 51 K’s in 39 IP, but since crossing the 163 IP threshold (a 40 IP jump over last season), he’s posted a 13.9 ERA and hasn’t made it out of the 6th inning in any of his last 3 starts. The K Rate has still been there but the command has faded and hitters are starting to take advantage. He’s scheduled for two starts in the week’s final season and will undoubtedly only make the last start if its meaningful. Owners should tread carefully here. With the possibility of just 1 start and Latos struggling of late, it will be a big gamble to rely on him in the final week of the season.
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