Drew Stubbs:
Since Jim Edmonds went down with an oblique injury, Drew Stubbs has reclaimed his starting CF role and thrived hitting .296/.363/.507 in August and getting off to a 9-29 start here in September. Stubbs contact issues and below average walk rate will always make him a volatile asset, but his speed-power combination is one that belongs on all fantasy rosters. Stubbs knocked out his 16th HR of the season on Thursday in a 2-4 effort that included 2 more K’s to go along with his 2 RBI’s. He’s also stolen 24 bases to go with the 16 HR’s and has an outside shot at a 20-30 campaign. Rather surprisingly he’s only owned in 40% of ESPN leagues and about 48% of CBS leagues. He has few hurdles to playing time going forward with Edmonds likely done for the season and while he’ll certainly hurt the batting average, the power-speed combination also comes with relatively healthy Run-RBI totals, on pace for 87-70.
Jason Hammel:
Hammel did two things he hasn’t done in a start since mid August. He went more than 6 innings and he allowed 5 ER’s or more. He continues to post solid peripherals (7.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 46% GB Rate), but continues to struggle living up to them (4.25 ERA, 3.48 FIP) as he has throughout his career (4.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP). A deeper look into his splits indicates why. Hammel simply isn’t the same pitcher out of the stretch. With runners on his OPS against for his career is .845 compared to .746 with the bases empty. That .100 point difference has been rather consistent throughout his career (.760 vs. .672 – ’10, .781 vs. .769 – ’09, .852 vs. .739 – ’08, .936 vs. .804 – ’07). The large discrepancies out of the stretch coupled with a typically high LD Rate (20.7% career average) mean Hammel is likely going to be a guy that usually under-performs his FIP. Hammel will get the Padres at home in his next outing a team he’s posted a 3.80 ERA against in 4 prior starts this season.
Bud Norris:
It might be dangerous for me to praise Norris again since the last time I did it he followed it up with 2 stinkers in 3 outings, but I’m back at it again. Norris rebounded from 2 poor outings to battle through 6 innings against the Dodgers to pick up his 7th win of the season. Norris strugggled with his command walking 4 in 7 innings but he struck out 7 and yielded just 3 hits. He’s now walked 3 or more in his last 4 outings, after I noted the improved command may be an indication he was turning the corner back on August 20th, indicating he’s still an erratic option. However there is something to pay attention to here for h2h owners as Norris will get two starts not next week, but the following week when many leagues have their semi-finals or start their finals and those two starts will come against WAS, PIT. I’ve been targeting Norris in advance in my CBS H2H points leagues and for owners in other pts-based formats where the two starts matter, I’d consider looking to Norris as a potential stash option as well for week 25. The command will make him erratic but against weak offenses the K’s provide enough value that you can take the ratio risk.
Jon Garland:
It seems like Garland was due for a start like this at PETCO. Garland hadn’t allowed more than 4 ER’s in a single home start this season and was sporting a tidy 2.68 ERA in 15 home starts. The ERA was great but didn’t really match up with his 1.30 WHIP and on Thursday night we saw some of that regression. Garland allowed 11 base-runners in 5 innings and 6 of them found their way across home plate, raising his home ERA to 3.10 on the season. He’ll get two starts on the road next week in unfavorable matchups and with Garland posting an ERA just a shade over 4 on the road and Garland showing some command issues of late (at least 3 BB’s in 8 straight starts), I’d avoid Garland unless I was desperate.
Colby Rasmus:
So… that’s what happens when Colby Rasmus plays? Rasmus went 4-4 with 2 HR’s, 3 Runs, and 4 RBI’s. It was the fifth consecutive start for Rasmus and in that time he’s now gone 9-17 with 5 Runs and 5 RBI’s while getting on-base at least twice in every game but one. He’s produced whenever he’s been on the field this season posting a solid 0.69 FPI, but his feud with Tony LaRussa has cost himself and his fantasy owners. The issues have been public enough that LaRussa’s come under pressure for his management and has been giving in by playing Colby more often. My impression is this will continue throughout the rest of the season and owners can more safely rely on Rasmus’ production and playing time the rest of the way. He should be owned in all formats, so check your waiver wire if someone got tired of Colby’s inconsistent playing time.
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