Javier Vazquez – Javier Vazquez returns to the Yankees’ rotation this afternoon against the Blue Jays looking to regain his 2009 form when he posted a 2.77 FIP. For the season Vazquez has experienced a drop in his K/9 (9.77 in ’09/7.19 in ’10), increase in his BB/9 (1.81 in ’09/3.56 in ’10) and the highest HR/9 of his career (1.75). Despite a career ERA and FIP of 4.22 and 3.91, respectively, Vazquez has recorded an ugly 4.86 ERA and 5.28 FIP through 139 innings this season. Vazquez’s most alarming stat is his average fastball speed which has dropped from consistently between 90 and 91 throughout his entire career to just 88 mph this season. This lack of velocity helps explain how batters are making contact on 81% of the pitches at which they swing – by far the highest mark of Vazquez’s career. I’ve always thought Vazquez was an underrated fantasy asset because of his K/9 marks, but until he regains his fastball speed (and control, for that matter), he’s not worth much in next year’s auction. If he does get the fastball back into the 90s and lowers his BB/9 rate, Vazquez should be a nice bounce back candidate and buy-low option in most league formats in 2011.
Brandon Morrow – One of my top value picks for next season, Brandon Morrow struggled against the Yankees Friday afternoon en route to taking the loss. He allowed 5 ER on 6 hits with 3 walks and 4 strikeouts. Morrow entered Friday’s start with an outstanding 10.93 K/9 and had lowered his BB/9 from 5.68 in ’09 to a much more acceptable 3.96 this season. He also owned a 4.27 ERA but his FIP was an excellent 3.16 to go along with a HR/9 of just 0.69 (compared to 1.29 in ’09). Morrow is also dealing with a .341 BABIP which helps explain his 1.35 WHIP. Overall, I love targeting guys like Morrow who have strong strikeout rates but haven’t quite put it together yet. Morrow’s ERA may keep other managers from going after the Blue Jays’ right hander in the 2011 draft/auction but I strongly recommend grabbing him as a cheap source of strikeouts coupled with a sub-4.00 ERA.
Ian Kinsler – One of the biggest disappointments in fantasy baseball this season, Ian Kinsler went 1-for-4 on Friday against the Twins. After recording an excellent .235 ISO in ’09, Kinsler is posting a horrible .120 mark and has just 6 HRs and a .416 SLG% (compared to .488 in ’09). Interestingly, the second baseman has drastically improved his OBP from .327 in ’09 to .386 in ’10 thanks to a solid 0.89 BB/K mark. He’s also benefiting from a .332 BABIP after recording a .241 mark in ’09, which has resulted in a 44-point increase in his batting average. It’s hard to imagine Kinsler’s power suddenly disappearing so expect him to bounce back in 2011, although 30 HRs (which he hit in ’09) may be a stretch. Drop him down a few notches on your second baseman rankings but don’t let one bad season distort your view of a very solid fantasy contributor.
Derek Holland – Starting in place of the ineffective Rich Harden, Derek Holland tossed 6 1/3 innings of 4-run ball while striking out 5 and walking 1. Entering Friday’s start, Holland had only thrown 28 innings in the majors this season and showed flashes of effectiveness (8.26 K/9) and areas for concern (4.13 BB/9 and 1.91 HR/9). In 166 career major league innings, the lefty has struggled to the tune of a 5.15 FIP, 1.73 HR/9 and 1.49 WHIP. However, Holland is just 23 and, in the minors, he consistently posted K/9 marks in the double digits and maintained walk rates under or around 3.00. Holland may not be ready to help your fantasy team in September this season but he is definitely a must-have in 2011.
Austin Jackson – The Tigers’ centerfielder didn’t start Friday but entered the game as a late replacement and picked up an RBI. Jackson has enjoyed a productive rookie season by hitting .305/.359/.411 to go along with 21 steals. However, be wary of acquiring Jackson too early in next year’s auction/draft because he is definitely getting lucky this season. Jackson owns an incredible .421 BABIP which is fueling his .300+ batting average. He’s also striking out too much (27% K%) and not drawing enough walks (7% BB%). Jackson definitely has value next season and, at 23, has plenty of time to continue developing. But he’s showing some warning signs that next season might not be as productive as 2010.
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