Rick Porcello (SP—Tigers) On Sunday, Rick Porcello pitched one of his better games of the season, notching his tenth victory. He allowed one earned run through eight innings, allowing four hits, a walk and striking out five. Consistency has alluded Porcello for much of the season. It seems that with every good game he pitches, a poor one is to follow. Expectations were probably too high for Porcello this season after a 14 win campaign his rookie year. While he will fall short matching his victories from 2009, in some ways he has done just as well. Yes, his innings are slightly down at 157 (170 for 2010), and his ERA of 5.01 is almost a run higher than what he had a year ago at 3.96. But the 3.96 ERA he had last year was far better than he deserved with a FIP of 4.77. This should have been a warning to fantasy owners that Porcello would struggle some this year. In fact, this year his FIP is at 4.36 which would indicate that he has pitched more effective than in 2009 and is not entirely deserving of his elevated ERA this year. He doesn't have the strikeout ability to dominate batters and the ground ball is primarily his bread and batter. Encouraging is that he has done a better job of keep away from home runs as he has allowed just 17 on the season compared to 23 last year. There is still a maturation process with Porcello, but owners shouldn't sour on him this year. There were some improvements this year that didn't necessarily stand out but should be noted.
Trevor Cahill (SP—A's) Trevor Cahill was roughed up by the Texas Rangers on Sunday and took his 8th loss against 17 wins. With the trouncing he took, Cahill's ERA jumped above 3.00 for the first time since July. But fantasy owners should be careful not to put to much stock in the 17 wins Chaill has this year and be careful with him for 2011. Cahill's FIP of 4.18 is more than a run higher than his ERA, representing that some regression could be coming his way next year. His K/9 of 5.28 isn't particularly compelling and he has relied heavily on a very low BHIP of .226 that will probably not continue forward. So don't get too enamored with the high winning percentage, because Cahill will see tougher times in 2011.
Josh Beckett (SP—Red Sox) Although Schuyler just did a blurb on Josh Beckett just a couple of days ago, I thought I'd chime in my two cents. Schuyler is taking a skeptical stance on Beckett and if healthy figures him to be a #3 or #4 starter. He brings up some really valid points about how Beckett has done poorly this year even when he has been proclaimed “healthy”. But I'm just a little more optimistic on Beckett having a bounce back year in 2011. Beckett is still bringing a fastball that averages over 93 mph. While this is a loss of velocity from previous years, he still has an 8.21 K/9. His BHIP is the highest of his career at .343 (career average .305) and this despite having a lower LD% at 19.5% than last year's 21.1%. Also his LOB% of 64% is about 7% below his career average and this should also slide back up closer to normal. Finally, his FIP of 4.51 –while still not great—indicates that he has pitched far better than his 5.77 ERA would indicate. It's true that Beckett's arm has seen a lot of mileage, but assuming health does not factor into his ability to pitch, I would expect Beckett to recovery nicely and be easily slotted as a #2 pitcher for next year.
James Shields (SP—Rays) Going into 2010, I was rather lukewarm on James Shields. Sure enough his 13-14 record is hardly impressive considering that he plays for one of the best team's in baseball. Sunday, he was less than impressive as he got touched for five earned runs, on eight hits and two walks in just six innings. Shields' ERA now stands at a bloated 5.04. But in truth, I don't think that Shields is as poor as he has been pitching. There are things to like. First off, he has been averaging almost a strikeout per inning with 198.1 innings under his belt and 186 strikeouts. I also happen to really like his K/BB of 3.83. And his FIP of 4.26 is far better than his ERA. It's also worth noting that while having virtually the same LD% of 20.4% as last season, Shields' BHIP is significantly higher at .348 compared to .317 in 2009. I still hate the 34 home runs that he has given up, but he is better than he has pitched this season. Keep Shields in mind on draft day because despite the unsightly numbers for 2010, he is not that bad and could be a solid pitching choice in 2010 that could be had at a good price or draft position.
Brian Matusz (SP—Orioles) Put Brian Matusz on your list of sleeper picks to target for 2011. Matusz is one of the many young, talented arms in the Oriole system and if his last two months is an indication of things to come, you should put Matusz on your draft day “to do” list. Over the past two months, Matusz has compiled a 5-1 record with a 2.57 ERA. He has almost a 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio over that span with 35 strikeouts and just 12 walks with opponents batting just .236 against him. His season FIP of 4.18 is better than overall ERA of 4.56 indicating a better effectiveness than his ERA would indicate. That Matusz has been able to do so well despite playing for such an awful team is a credit to his talent in a similar way with Grienke and the Royals. Matusz could be ready for a breakout year in 2011.
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