Justin Masterson (SP—Indians) Despite walking away with a no-decision on Tuesday, Justin Masterson pitched a solid game allowing just one earned run through 7.2 innings and struck out seven batters. Masterson has been putting up some pretty credible numbers in August with him finishing the month with an ERA of 3.28. For the year, Masterson has struggled with poor component stats with a K/BB of just 1.65 which has resulted in a poor WHIP of 1.57. But fantasy owners should keep Masterson on their radar for next season because of specific key statistics that really have not gone Masterson's way. Masterson has carried a very low LOB% of 65.7% which has obviously contributed to his woes, but he also has been very unlucky with a BHIP of .341. His BHIP is even more ridiculous when you consider his LD% was very good at 15.2% and a ground ball rate of more than 60%. Finally, with a FIP of 4.28 compared to an ERA of 5.02, Masterson could be a potential sleeper for '11.
Brian Duensing (SP—Twins) I've been pretty impressed with what I have seen from Brian Duensing from last season to this season. He posted a 3.64 ERA in his rookie year in '09 bouncing back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation. This year has been much of the same role but since being slotted into the rotation at the end of July, Duensing has put up some impressive numbers. Tuesday Duensing didn't figure into the decision but he pitched 6.2 inning without allowing an earned run. Since starting, he has a 4-1 record and a 2.33 ERA. His overall ERA on the season is 2.03. These are very good numbers but as good as they are Duensing is not that good. This season, he has been the beneficiary of a high LOB% at 84.7%. His FIP of 3.67 is also out of alignment with his ERA although it's still a good
number. Although Duensing may not be quite as good as he has been of late and you should expect some regression, he is worth adding to your team down the stretch as the Twins are in the hunt. Also keep him in mind for next season as he could prove to be a viable option on draft day.
Edwin Jackson (SP—White Sox) If the White Sox are to overtake the Twins for the division lead, they will need more big games like the one they got from Edwin Jackson on Tuesday. Jackson was one out away from the complete game, but still he only gave up one earned run, seven hits, one walk and struck out eleven. Since joining the Sox, Jackson has been stellar and appears to be have put Arizona behind him. He has a 3-0 record with a 0.98 ERA. He has struck out 45 batters in 36.2 innings and has walked just 8. For the season Jackson has had a below average LOB% of 70.7% that has contributed to his shaky season. But his FIP of 3.94 compared to his ERA of 4.37 is indicative that he has pitched better than it appears. He's blazing hot right now and certainly worth grabbing if available. It's also worth noting that he has a lifetime ERA of 3.23 in 39 innings pitched a U.S. Cellular Field. The ballpark appears to agree with him. That's something to keep in mind on draft day for next year.
Francisco Liriano (SP—Twins) At the start of 2010, there were many who were a little gun shy about Francisco Liriano and didn't want to take the risk of drafting him. He had the major surgery a few seasons back and 2009 was not good with a 5.80 ERA. But Liriano has been so terrific this year that his gap between his FIP (2.31) and his ERA (3.41) is one of the highest in baseball. The low FIP is primarily a result of a very high strikeout rate (K/9 of 9.72) and a very low HR/9 of 0.17. In fact, Liriano has allowed just three home runs all year. And with a GB% of 53.8% and a FB% of 26.2%, his record could be much better than 12-7. And finally, he BHIP is elevated at .346, so despite how well Liriano has done this season, he has been on the unlucky side. Fantasy owners need to take note on that for next year as Liriano should be a top tier pitcher next season.
James Shields (SP—Rays) It's been a very uneven season for James Shield. His 13-11 record and 4.73 doesn't inspire much confidence especially when it has been increasing from year to year (2008-3.56, 2009-4.14). But there are some notable good traits about Shields. First, he is a workhorse averaging about 6.1 innings per start and having logged 200+ innings his last three seasons and on his way to his fourth in 2010. Second, Shields has had very good component stats with a K/9 of 8.46 and a BB/9 of 2.21. Because of the strong strikeout rate, his FIP is 50 points lower than his 4.73 ERA. Plus with a BHIP of .341 compared to a career norm of .312, we could say that the ball hasn't exactly bounced his way. But where Shields has failed miserably this year is with allowing too many home runs. He has allowed 29 already this year which matches his total for last year in 50 fewer innings. The key for Shields next season will be to work on keeping his pitches down. If he could do this, we could really see a positive swing for Shields in 2011.
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