Zack Greinke SP (KC) – Greinke pitched well last night until a rough 6th inning, but he has certainly been a disappointment for fantasy owners this season. The bad news is that Greinke will probably never repeat his magical ’09 season. However, there are lots of reasons to think that his 2011 season will be markedly better than his 2010 season. For starters, it’s not as if Greinke has pitched poorly; he sports a 3.38 K/BB ratio and 46.4 GB%, which has led to a 3.36 FIP. That leads me to my next point; Greinke’s actual ERA is inflated. Here are Greinke’s strand rates from ’07-’09: 75.6%/75.2/79.3. So clearly his 66.8% mark this season is an aberration. Finally, there’s reason to think Greinke’s K rate will rise next season. From ’07-’09 Greinke’s K/9 were rising (7.82/8.14/9.50), and at age 27 the drop off he has experienced is not expected. A closer look shows that Greinke’s curveball is currently rated as a negative in terms of runs above average, something that has never happened before in Greinke’s career. Also, Greinke has induced swings on pitches outside of the zone 30.2% of the time (a career high). Greinke’s growing dominance prior to this season, his age, his past history with a successful curveball and his continued ability to get batters to chase pitches all point towards a marked improvement in his K/9 next season. That combined with some better luck in terms of his strand rate and his ability to limit walks and HR will make 2011 Greinke a lot better than 2010 Greinke, even if he’s unable to repeat his outstanding ’09 campaign.
Shelley Duncan OF (CLE) – Duncan blasted two home runs yesterday, and at first glance there’s some stuff to like about Duncan indicating his ability to hit for power. First of all, let’s dissect his balls in play date. For his career he has a very high FB% of 47.8 but still manages to hit line drives at good rate as well (20.4%). On top of that his career HR/FB% of 14.5% is above average and suggests raw power, which he can utilize thanks to keeping pitchers honest (career 9.6 BB%). So, is Duncan a 2011 fantasy sleeper? No. He strikes out way too much. His career K% is 31.9%, and it is a whopping 36.5% this season. He also struggles mightily against same handed pitchers. For his career, Duncan’s line against righties is a lowly .194/.277/.356. If Duncan could cut down on his K’s and begin to hit righties, he’d be a dark horse for 30 HR with regular playing. Problem is if that hasn’t happened already (in the case of K’s it appears to be getting worse), it’s extremely improbable it will happen at all. Duncan is already on the wrong side of 30.
Wilson Betemit 3B (KC) – Betemit went 3-5 last night with 4 RBI’s and his 11ths homer of the season. Betemit is on my early 2011 sleeper list. His EYE (.53) is much improved from what it has been in past seasons. Both his BB% (12.2%) and K% (26.1%) are improvements upon his career marks. Perhaps due to that, Betemit is hitting for power as evidenced by his .216 ISO and 13.3 HR/FB%. Don’t call this a fluke as the last time Betemit was given 250+ plate appearances he posted a .206 and .225 ISO in back to back seasons (’06 and ’07). In those seasons he also had HR/FB% of 18% and 21.9% respectively. Betemit is at an age (28, 29 heading into 2011 Opening Day) where his power is still intact, but his plate discipline has improved vastly with experience. It’s not unrealistic to expect a .280 BA and 20 HR out of Betemit next season if he is given an everyday opportunity.
Josh Tomlin SP (CLE) – Tomlin beat the Angels yesterday, holding them to 3 ER over 6.2 IP with a solid 4 K’s to 1 BB. Through 9 starts, Tomlin has decent stats (9 wins, 4.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), but I would stay away from him both this year and next. He is not very dominant as evidenced by his low 4.75 K/9. He was better in the minors, but was still very inconsistent when it came to striking out batters. For a pitcher with that low of a K rate to be successful he must have absurdly good control (Tomlin’s 2.47 BB/9 are good but still have his K/BB ratio below 2) or get ground ball after ground ball. Unfortunately for Tomlin, he is an extremely FB risky pitcher (28.5 GB%). His FIP (5.25) and xFIP (5.27) are more indicative of his skill set than his actual ERA.
Francisco Liriano SP (MIN) – Liriano’s velocity was excellent last night as he consistently hit 97mph. As valuable as he has been in fantasy this season, he should be even better next season. I think his velocity will be higher in the beginning of the season than it was in the beginning of this season, and I also project him to reach the 200 inning benchmark for the first time in his career. On top of that, Liriano’s FIP of 2.36 is actually a run lower than his actual era; his BABIP of .341 is 21 points above Liriano’s career average and will be lower next season.
