Carl Pavano – One of the biggest surprises in fantasy baseball this season, Carl Pavano just keeps chugging along as he enters today’s start with a 3.52 ERA and 3.71 FIP. Pavano’s K/9 has dropped from 6.64 in ’09 to just 4.93 in ’10 but he’s made up for it with a lower HR/9 (1.17 in ’09/0.78 in ’10) while increasing his GB% (43% in ’09/51% in ’10). The right hander’s been lucky by posting a .282 BABIP and has enjoyed a regression on his LOB% (73% in ’10 compared to 66% in both ’08 and ’09). Additionally, Pavano's looking to post a sub-4.00 FIP for the second straight season. Looking toward next season, Pavano definitely has value as a cheaper SP in deep leagues as he’s now put together back-to-back solid campaigns. Sure, I’d like to see more whiffs, but with a mid-3.00s ERA and 1.15 WHIP, Pavano is providing plenty of value in other categories to help your fantasy team in 2011.
Kevin Millwood – Once upon a time, Kevin Millwood had some pretty decent value in fantasy baseball, but those days are long gone. The veteran right hander takes on the Tigers today, hoping to avoid a league-leading 16th loss of the season. After posting a 3.67 ERA in 2009, Millwood’s ERA has jumped to 5.38 in '10. However, the ERA increase shouldn’t be too surprising as Millwood’s FIP was 4.80 in ’09, indicating that he was fortunate to finish the season with such a large difference between his FIP and ERA. This season, Millwood’s FIP is 4.93 and he’s striking out just over 6 batters per game. He’s also posting the lowest GB% of his career (38%) while allowing far too many homers (1.41 HR/9). It isn’t helping that Millwood’s LOB% has dropped by 9% compared to last season and his BABIP has increased from .279 in ’09 to .329 in ’10. Millwood hasn’t posted an FIP under 4.00 since 2006 and should remain off all fantasy teams in 2011 and beyond.
Colby Lewis – After back-to-back horrible starts where he allowed 14 ER in just 9 1/3 innings, Colby Lewis bounced back with a strong performance Thursday against the Blue Jays. Lewis allowed 1 ER on 5 hits while striking out 8 and walking 2 over 6 1/3 innings of work. There had been rumors that Lewis’ recent struggles would force the Rangers to skip last night’s start since he was showing signs of wearing down during his first full season back in the big leagues. Those rumors should be dead now and Lewis can be expected to continue starting every five days for the remainder of the regular season. Prior to Thursday, Lewis owned an 8.70 K/9, 2.90 BB/9 and 1.00 HR/9 while posting a 3.69 FIP. He’s not getting particularly lucky either as his BABIP is .299 and LOB% is 72%. Looking toward 2011, Lewis is a solid No. 3 SP in deep leagues and should maintain his excellent strikeout numbers.
Alex Rios – After an outstanding first half where he recorded an .878 OPS, smashed 15 HRs and stole 23 bases, Alex Rios has slowed down quite a bit during the second half. Since the All-Star Break, Rios has posted just a .707 OPS to go along with 5 HRs and 9 steals prior to last night’s game. The White Sox outfielder connected for his 21st HR and finished the game 1-for-4. Hopefully, you sold high on Rios when you could because he’s obviously regressed toward the mean. With a .780 OPS and averaging around 19 HRs a season during his 7 years in the big leagues, Rios’ 2010 totals are just slightly better than his career stats. He’s definitely a valuable option in any league format thanks to his combination of power and steals but a 20/30 season is probably his ceiling in 2011.
Jose Bautista – It’s 'Tista Time! On Thursday night and for the 44th time this season, Jose Bautista cranked a homer. He’s now posting a .264/.384/.609(!) line with 106 RBI for the season. There are surprises in fantasy baseball and then there is Jose Bautista. The guy absolutely mashed this season, recording an incredible .342 ISO after owning a .173 mark in 2009. It’s hard to believe he can do it all again in 2011 but the power is mostly real as his career ISO is .200. The outfielder only posted a .245 BABIP so he may even have gotten a bit unlucky on the balls he did hit in play. Bautista also showed excellent patience by walking in 15% of his ABs and tallying a 0.86 EYE. Be cautious to not overpay for him next season but he should be good for another 30+ HRs and 100+ RBI.
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