Brett Gardner: Gardner’s two above average skills are plate patience, 14% BB%, and speed, 39 steals in 46 attempts. However it is not enough for someone with so little power, 5 HR and 15 doubles in 402 AB. In the early part of the season it looked like he had the third piece, contact, April/May Ct%’s 88%/84%, but as the season wears on, he is really slipping, June/July/August Ct%’s 80%/75%/72%. The more exposure he has, the more his weakness is showing, which would lead you to believe that the Yankees’ will search for a better option as a starting LF for 2011 and shift Gardner to a 4th OF role.
Francisco Cervelli: With Jorge Posada playing less behind the plate every year, there should be plenty of AB in the catching spot for the Yankees in 2011. On the offensive side, Cervelli hasn’t done much to show that he deserves them, 0/32/.251 in 235 AB. He generates so little power that even an 8% BB% and 84% Ct% won’t be enough to make him effective. It would be a surprise to see Cervelli get 400+ AB with Yankees in 2011.
David Pauley: Pauley will continue to audition this month for a spot in the Mariners 2011 rotation. On the surface, his overall numbers look ordinary, 4.25 ERA in 53 innings, and his skills are soft, 4.9 K/9 and a 2.9 BB/9. However, if he can build on the gains over the last month, 4.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and a 58% GB%, he would merit some attention going into 2011.
Armando Galarraga: Galarrage is a soft-tosser, 4.6 K/9 and a 2.7 BB/9, without the ability to induce ground balls, 39% GB%. Even with good luck across the board, 73% S%, .213 BHIP%, and an 8% HR/FB%, his ERA is 3.98 in 110.2 innings. At the beginning of 2011, he will be 29 years of age, which is well past the growth stage. Even if he starts the season in the Tigers rotation, it would be surprising if he lasted past May.
Jeremy Guthrie: Guthrie’s dominance is in a four-year downtrend, 2007/2008/2009/2010 K/9’s 6.3/5.7/5.0/4.7, and despite good control, 2.3 BB/9, he doesn’t induce enough ground balls, 42% GB%, to make up for the lack of power. His 3.94 ERA is being helped by some good fortune, 191. BHIP% and an 8% HR/FB%. He will be 32 years of age at the beginning of 2011 and with all the good young arms in the Orioles organization, it is doubtful he will be a member of their starting rotation next year, which means he will land in another rotation or have to work out of the bullpen. Considering that his skills are those of a classic innings eater and only bad teams need an innings eater, which should give you a good idea of his potential for next season.
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