Bobby Abreu:
It’s been a difficult season from a batting average perspective for Bobby Abreu (.253) as his LD Rate has dropped 2% and his BABIP has fallen off about 40 points below his career average. Despite the lower batting average, Abreu plugs along as a HR-SB threat and added one to each column on Sunday in a 3-3 effort that included his 17th HR of the season and 18th SB. At 36 we’ve seen some slight regression in skills as Abreu has seen his K Rate jump while his BB and LD Rates have declined, but his durability and his willingness to run continues to make him a worthwhile fantasy option. Don’t expect much batting average regression from here on out, he may get to .260 but that’s about it. But the HR’s and SB’s should approach his 9th season of 20-20 in his career.
Casper Wells:
Is Wells the next Brennan Boesch? Wells, like Boesch, has been promoted aggressively this season and after posting a .233/.309/.483 line in his first season at AAA the Tigers bumped Wells to the major league level to get some playing time down the stretch. As you can tell by Wells minor league line his approach leaves a lot to be desired as he posted a 26% K Rate at AAA this year compared to just a 8% BB Rate. Like Boesch though his big skill is power as he notched 21 HR’s and 49 XBH’s in total in 430 PA’s for a solid 11.4% XBH Rate. He’s been a fixture in the Tigers lineup since August 28th and has rewarded Jim Leyland by going 12-29 with 4 2B’s and 2 HR’s. Much like Boesch he’s not showing much command of the strike zone, posting an outside zone swing rate of over 30%, but much like Boesch he’s producing. If you recall I wasn’t a big believer in Boesch based on his minor league track record but he made me look bad for a long time. While I won’t endorse Wells, with just 4 weeks left in the season there’s a chance he stays hot before big leaguers expose his weak plate discipline. I’d avoid him in mixed and I’d have a short leash with him in AL Only, but he’s certainly going to get playing time and is thus worth a look in AL formats.
Brett Cecil:
The one weakness it seems the Yankees have had over the last few years has been struggling against good LH pitching and boy the Blue Jays are doing their best to expose that weakness with a deep group of young LH starters. On Sunday it was Brett Cecil who made it 4-4 in quality outings this season against the Yankees and improved his record to 3-0. It wasn’t Cecil’s best outing as he allowed 11 base-runners in 6 1/3 innings but he limited the Yankees to 3 ER’s by relying on the ground ball. He got 12 ground ball outs and induced 2 double plays. It marked the 4th consecutive quality start for Cecil on the season and his 10th in his last 11 outings. Along with improvements in his BB Rate, his GB Rate, and his ability to generate swings outside the zone, Cecil has improved his consistency this year; perhaps the most important improvement for the young pitcher. Pitching in the AL East and relying on GB’s more than K’s will always limit Cecil’s value to more of a back-end fantasy SP, but he’s a reliable option in that role.
Josh Beckett:
Beckett was solid again on Sunday as he limited the White Sox to just 1 ER on 9 hits and 2 bb’s over 6 1/3 innings. He continued to show the good K Rate (9 K’s in 6 1/3) coupled with the good command (1 BB), but his straight fastball remains susceptible to extra base hits. He gave up 4 on Sunday afternoon and while none left the yard, it did lead to Beckett working out of a lot of jams. The propensity to give XBH’s and HR’s is the reason Beckett’s ERA doesn’t always jive with his great peripherals and the reason he can struggle with some blow-ups from time-to-time. In fact a dig in on his pitch data shows his FB velocity has ticked down 1 mph this year and as a result has gone from 7 runs above average to 9 runs below average. I’m confident using Beckett against weaker offenses and even mid-tier offenses, but I’d be hesitant to use him against elite offenses in small ballparks. He remains more of a matchups #3 fantasy SP.
Chris Tillman:
Tillman took the start on Sunday as the O’s have shifted to a 6-man rotation down the stretch as they work to limit innings on younger starters and also look to get a better look at a guy like Chris Tillman for next season. Tillman has been awful in his previous 18 major league starts showing poor skills (5.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 38% GB Rate) and wasn’t much better on Sunday. He allowed 9 base-runners and 3 ER’s in 5 1/3 innings. He did strike out 4, but he also walked 3 and served up 2 HR’s. He’s previously shown really good skills at the minor league level, specifically posting a 9.2 K/9 over his career, but his weak command (3.5 BB/9) and just average velocity (91 mph) make me wonder if he’ll ever succeed in the AL East. I’d continue to avoid and make Tillman prove it before investing, even in AL Only formats.
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