Jon Lester:
It wasn’t really hard to see how undervalued Lester was coming into drafts as last year’s peripherals (9.96 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 47.7% GB Rate) were much more indicative of an ace than the high-end #2 fantasy SP Lester was being regarded as during draft season. This season the peripherals have actually taken a small step backwards as Lester’s walking a few more (3.43 BB/9) but he’s compensating for the excess BB’s with even more GB’s, up to 54%. Despite the slight step backwards in his BB Rate, his results have actually taken a small step forward thanks a LD Rate that has declined another 1% and improved infield defense by the Red Sox that has helped keep his BABIP under .300. Lester continued his strong season by shutting out the Yankees over 7 dominant innings allowing just 2 hits and 3 BB’s while striking out 8. It marked the 5th time in his last 9 starts that Lester hasn’t allowed an earned run and improved his 2010 line to 19-8 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. All the Cy Young talk has focused on Sabathia and King Felix and don’t get me wrong its certainly deserved, but Lester certainly belongs in the conversation. The innings defecit he has compared to the other two candidates probably means his candidacy isn’t strong enough but on a per inning basis he’s been arguably better than both.
Ricky Romero:
I’ve been one of the bigger Ricky Romero fans this year but it appears he’s fading at thee nd of the season. Romero walked 5 on Saturday and now has walked at least 3 batters in 5 of his last 6 starts. During that time he’s predictably had trouble posting an abysmal 5.14 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He’s still keeping the ball on the ground, which is a big part of Romero’s game but the BB’s are the area he had shown strong improvements this season and were really the improvement that had propelled his breaout campaign. The weak close is actually making Romero’s 2010 campaign look a whole lot like his 2009 season which might drag down his value and provide a decent buying opportunity in drafts next season. He remains a really nice matchups option for mixed leaguers, but with the final start of his season coming in Minnesota and Romero struggling of late, I’d probably sit that one out.
John Danks:
Danks rebounded from a poor outing against the Tigers to pick up his 14th win of the season with 8 strong innings against the Angels. He allowed just 2 ER’s on 7 Hits and 2 BB’s while striking out 5. Danks has made mild improvements in his K, BB, and GB Rates this year and looks like a nice candidate for further improvement. He’s gotten hitters to chase pitches outside the zone at a clip over 30% this season (just 21% last season), but the outside contact rate has been at 69% which is 5% higher than his career average. If that outside contact rate reverts back to the normal mid 60’s as opposed to high 60’s we could see further improvements in the K Rate. Danks K Rate in the minors was over 9 and in his first two seasons he was just over 7 K/9. I think we can see a nice bump closer to 7.5 next season, making for some nice added value. Although the last two season s will make Danks look like he’s plateaued I think there’s some more room for growth.
Matt LaPorta:
LaPorta’s gottten me excited a few times this season as he appeared on the verge of putting it all together before it all quickly falling apart. He’s shown a good EYE all season long and really ramped it up in August and September (.81), but just can’t seem to hit the ball hard. He’s posted LD Rates of 15.9%, 10.8%, and 5.3% over the last 3 months of the season which is the real driver behind batting averages of .282, .207, .120 during that time. LaPorta posted a career 19.5% LD Rate in the minors, so it would seem unusual that he can’t generate LD’s at the big league level. I still think he puts it together at some point but fantasy owners investing in LaPorta in 2011 are certainly betting “on the come” as there’s been little indication the power or the batting average will be there at the big league level.
Matt Garza:
Garza rebounded from a string of ugles starts against the Red Sox and Yankees to shut down the Mariners over 7 strong innings. He allowed just 1 ER on 8 hits. He didn’t walk a batter and and struck out 8. On the periphery Garza’s 15-10 record along with another 200 inning campaign feels like an improvement on last year’s season, but Garza’s actually seen a drop in his K Rate and GB Rate that are rather alarming. His K Rate has trended back down below 7 K/9 after rising above 8 last season and his GB Rate is back down to a paltry 34%. His BABIP has stayed somewhat the same (.278) despite giving up more LD’s this season and all these indicators make me wonder if Garza will be significantly over-valued next season or if he’ll be a potential trade candidate for the Rays as he enters his 2nd year of arbitration. A trade out of Tampa bay would be a boost to his value as any move outside of the AL East would provide better matchups, but if he stays in Tampa Bay I think he’ll be overvalued next season. He’s really more of a mid-rotation matchups option than the #2 fantasy SP, I think fantasy owners perceive him as.
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