Thomas Diamond – SP Chicago Cubs
Injuries has dimmed the once bright outlook for Thomas Diamond, the 10th overall pick in 2004. Possessed of incredible stuff and a lamentably flawed guidance system, Diamond was derailed by TJS prior to 2007, and an ankle injury after his return in 2008. The Rangers tried to refit him for the bullpen in 2009 but he simply couldn't control his pitches. The Rangers tried to designate him at that point but the Cubs claimed him off of waivers, The Cubs would then designate him themselves less than a month later and he cleared waivers at that point.
A look at his 2010 AAA line compared to the rest of his stat box clearly shows the kind of trouble walks can cause. His 3.8 BB/9 rate looks positively stingy in the context of his career and as a result his WHIP shrank and so did his ERA. That prompted the Cubs to give him a look this month with mixed results.
After two starts Diamond got hitters to chase out of the zone 36% of the time and I have to believe most of that came in his first start against the Brewers where he fanned 10. The Reds showed a little patience against him in his second start, and made him prove his control and he fanned just 1 hitter before being chased in 3 IP. He also put four batters on base with three walks and a hit batsman in addition to allowing 4 hits in just 9 outs. In his third start against the Cards he saw more of the same walking 4 hitters in just 12 outs allowing 6 hits with just 2 Ks.
So far we have also seen a fastball that averages between 88 and 89, which he tries to keep hitters off of with a change that, at less than 8 mph difference, is not much of a change at all, even when his motion is good. He throws a slider at 76 mph on average and I am just not seeing how he fools MLB hitters for too long with that level stuff especially when he has next to zero command to make it play up.
Diamond is way too flammable for my tastes and without his pre-TJS, high-end stuff, his lack of command is simply intolerable. He can fan 10 at times if he can stay in a game long enough, but you are going to be playing Russian roulette with Diamond, with more full chambers than empty ones
Long Term Fantasy Grade - C-
Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP 2008 AA 3 3 6.20 53.2 7.9 6.2 0.5 .263 1.70 2009 AA 1 3 3.63 44.2 10.0 7.4 0.6 .254 1.79 2009 AAA 1 0 6.55 11.0 6.5 5.7 0.8 .279 1.73 2010 AAA 5 4 3.16 108.1 8.6 3.8 0.7 .220 1.22 2010 MLB 0 3 8.31 13.0 9.0 6.9 0.7 .317 2.08
Chris Archer - SP Chicago Cubs
Sometimes we speculate that a prospect could use a "change of scenery", a change of organizations to jump start his career and Chris Archer might be one of the best current examples of of that principle. His 2008 stat line in the box below was his last with the Indians and quite frankly his best. He turned as sharp corner upon his trade to the Cubs (the Mark DeRosa deal) for the 2009 season. The most remarkable trait of that campaign for Archer was that he didn't allow a HR in 109 IP!
Chris is gifted in terms of pure stuff. He is regularly in the mid-90s with his fastball, sprinkling in 96 and 97 abundantly, with good life that crowds RHH. Chris throws a tough, tight, slider that is also plus pitch. He has good downward plane from an over-the-top delivery which helps a nice curve that is sometimes loose and lazy. He is working on his change and needs to develop it as he climbs the ladder.
And as you can see from his stat box, control is an issue. A big one. It's hard to see where his control problems come from however. He's not a max-effort pitcher, his velocity comes easy with relatively solid and simple mechanics, but his location presents problems. One thought is that his control issues are really a matter of him being unwilling to challenge hitters and nibbling. he has the stuff to miss bats but isn't always convinced of that.
Since jumping to AA Chris has been outstanding, winning 7 of his 8 starts and his one loss came in a game where he allowed one unearned run. His results are simply overpowering his control issues to this point, but the Cubs would be wise to press the point before they advance him.
Archer has allowed a flyball rate of just 26.2% in AA this year, even a little better than the 26.6% rate he allowed in his homer-less 2009 season. Obviously he's working with an unsustainable LOB% (89.9%) and a favorable .231 BHIP% this year but he's been impressive none the less in his first 8 starts against advanced hitters.
Chris has too many flaws, his LOB% and BHIP% are too favorable, and the sample here is too small to get truly jeeped about Chris right now, so I will grade him conservatively ... However his performance in AA so far creates a very loud, very large blip on our prospect radar screen.
Long-Term Fantasy Grade - C+
Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP 2008 A 4 8 4.29 115.1 8.3 6.5 0.6 .220 1.53 2009 A 6 4 2.81 109.0 9.8 5.4 0.0 .202 1.32 2010 A+ 7 1 2.86 72.1 10.2 3.2 0.5 .209 1.11 2010 AA 7 1 0.58 46.1 8.5 4.9 0.1 .171 1.12
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