Mike Minor - SP Atlanta Braves
The Braves will start Mike Minor against the Astros tomorrow as the left-hander will make his major league debut. The Braves' first round pick last year out of Vanderbilt, Mike signed for $2.42M with the Braves, the most the team has ever paid, and the most a 7th overall pick has ever been paid. He has shown why this year in his first full pro season knifing through AA and AAA on his way to the bigs
Mike was not overpowering when drafted, with a high-80s fastball, but he had good life and advanced in-zone command. Since he entered the Braves system however Mike has gained 4-5 mph on his fastball. Mike also came to the system with an inconsistent slider and added a curve. Both pitches have made great gains under the tutelage of the Braves outstanding player development staff.
In 87 IP with AA Mississippi this year Mike limited opponents to a .233 OBA with only a neutral .324 BHIP%. Lefties hit just .174 off of him. With his new-found velocity, Mike had some command issues early posting a 5.8 BB/9 in April, which leads to his 3.5 BB/9 overall. In fact Mike slow start suppressed all of his AA numbers. It's his AAA numbers that give you a true idea where he is as debut looms. Mike hardly noticed the jump to AAA and has upped the ante on almost all of his indicators. He's benefited from a favorable .247 BHIP% in Gwinnett but I don't think that diminishes what has been a fairly dominant 6 starts.
Mike is now a power lefty, and more, with the development of his slider and curve. Earlier this year I wrote of Mike: "All of this will get even better this summer in an organization accomplished at maximizing pitching prospects." The Braves have indeed done a great job here with Mike.
On draft day last year we projected Mike as a safe, middle-of-the-rotation level starter. He's looking like a low-end #2 at this point and I reserve the right to upgrade as his command and breaking stuff continues to improve. I also see him as being able to contribute out of the box as a major leaguer making him a claim with 2010 value, starting Monday, with what I believe will be a good start against the Astros
Long-Term Fantasy Grade - B+
Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP 2009 A 0 1 0.64 14.0 10.9 0.0 0.0 .238 0.71 2010 AA 2 6 4.03 87.0 11.2 3.5 0.8 .233 1.24 2010 AAA 4 1 1.89 33.1 10.0 3.2 0.3 .171 0.60
J.P. Arencibia – Catcher Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays responded to John Buck's injury by recalling 24-year-old J.P. Arencibia from AAA Las Vegas where he had posted cartoonish numbers this year. Unfortunately, to this point his walk rate had been cartoonish as well, but as you can see in his stat box all of his indicators have snapped nicely into place this year after struggles in BB rate and K rate and OBP.
If you want to dig into his BA a little bit, specifically his outlying .236 BA in '09, you need look no further than his his .269 BHIP%. This year he's working with a fairly neutral .310 BHIP% and returned to the .300 level. The Jays were also trying to change his approach at the plate somewhat in '09 after his dismal walk rate in '08 and he is said to have been resistant. What ever the Jays were telling him though, it seemed to finally sink in this year.
J.P. obviously has plus power, generated in part by a long swing, which gets him into a bit of trouble when he chases. This year he's bringing the pitchers to him, and leveraging pitch counts, and the results have been dramatic.
His defense doesn't mean much to you in a fantasy sense except when you understand that the Jays feel he's made big gains defensively, enough to warrant extensive playing time during this visit to the majors, and enough to feel that his future is as a fantasy-qualified catcher.
Cito Gaston says that J.P. will do most of the catching while Buck heals a cut on his hand over the next couple of weeks. That will be a good look and it makes him a viable short-term pick up in addition to being a great up-side pick up n the long-term. He quite comfortably projects to 20-25 HRs from a catching slot, once he establishes himself in the majors, probably beginning next year. Nothing wrong with that.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - A-
Seas Lvl AB XBH HR SB AVG BB% K% OBP SLG 2007 A- 228 21 3 0 .254 5.6 24.6 .309 .377 2008 A+ 248 35 13 0 .315 4.5 18.5 .344 .560 2008 AA 262 28 14 0 .302 2.5 21.0 .302 .496 2009 AAA 466 54 21 0 .236 5.2 24.5 .284 .444 2010 AAA 379 64 31 0 .303 9.0 20.3 .360 .639
