Mike Minor:
With Kris Medlen likely facing Tommy John surgery, the Braves have already announced their intention to hand over his spot in the rotation to pitching prospect Mike Minor. Minor was the Braves 1st rd draft pick in last year’s draft (7th overall) and has moved quickly as a polished prospect out of Vanderbilt. He doesn’t have over-powering velocity so he’s always been tagged as a mid-rotation type starter, but his skills at the minor league level have been quite strong. This year between AA and AAA he posted a 10.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 44% GB Rate. While the BB Rate is a bit higher than we’d like to see it has been improving (2.8 BB/9 at AAA). Minor will get fantasy owners attention with a friendly two start week that lands him the Astros and Dodgers, two teams that rank in the bottom 10 of MLB in OPS. I’ve been adding him in 10-team mixed leagues for the two starts next week and given the good K potential and run support with the Braves, I plan on giving Minor an extended look. He’s flown under the radar a bit as a fantasy option but he’s a pretty advanced pitching prospect who at the very least should contribute in K’s and potentially W’s.
James McDonald:
In his first start with his new team James McDonald had easily the best start of his major league career. McDonald dominated the Rockies over 6 shutout innings, limiting them to just 4 hits and 1 BB, while striking out 8. He needed just 89 pitches to get through the 6 innings, while throwing 54 of his pitches for strikes. He used mostly his offspeed pitch to keep hitters off balanced and flashed a plus curveball most of the night. McDonald’s always shown good stuff (92-94 mph fastball) but he hasn’t been able to put things together at the major league level. Command has been an issue as has a low GB Rate. He overcame both those issues on Thursday night walking just 1 and recording 7 ground outs to just 3 air outs. We’ve touted the upside for NL Only leagues before just based on the great minor league K Rate and we’ll do so again. For mixed leaguers he’s a wait and see guy, but this is a good first step in the right direction as a Pirate.
Roger Bernadina:
Bernadina received a slight short-term bump in value as he’s been moved to the leadoff spot with Nyjer Morgan battling a hip injury. Bernadina has responded by going 4-8 with a HR, SB and 3 Runs scored in the two games since taking over the leadoff role. Of course both games were in friendly Chase Field against a horrible Diamondbacks pitching staff but lets give Bernadina the benefit of the doubt and check in on his peripherals. A deeper look shows Bernadina is still struggling with plate discipline. After showing improvements early in the year his BB Rate has dipped back down to 6% after posting a miserable 2:16 BB:K Ratio in July. He’s chasing nearly 29% of pitches outside the zone and making contact on just 54% of those swings, giving pitchers little reason to challenge him. As a result, the power has trended back down. Bernadina has all sorts of tools but his rawness is still showing up at the big league level. He’s hitting far too many balls on the ground, 46%, to flash his power and his lack of plate discipline and poor LD Rate (15%) isn’t allowing him to get on base enough to flash the speed. Against weaker pitching staffs he’s had success this year which you’d expect given his career triple A line of .321/.391/.462, but good pitchers can expose him. A look back at his big June (.329/.409/.476) when it looked like he was making big jumps in skill shows a schedule that included BAL, PIT, CLE, KC, HOU, DET, CIN, ATL, CHW. Only CIN, ATL, and CHW have experienced staffs in that group and it looks like Bernadina was simply taking advantage of matchups, similarly to his recent hot streak in ARZ.
Pablo Sandoval:
Perhaps if you look hard enough you can see the casket wrapped around the snowman that subscriber allankeiter suggested (via twitter) as an appropriate description for Sandoval’s season. Its certainly appropriate given Sandoval hasn’t topped a .250 batting average in a single month this season since April. A deeper look at Sandoval’s performance this season actually reveals very little difference from his 2009 season. He’s still showing very poor command of the strike zone, swinging at over 44% of the pitches outside the zone and walking in just 8.2% of his PA’s. He’s still making contact at a rate of 83% (82.6% last season) and his 15% strikeout rate is in line as well (14.5% last season). The only big difference in Sandoval’s 2010 season is he’s simply not squaring the ball up as well. His LD Rate has dropped from 18.6% to 16.7% and his ISO has collapsed from .226 to .118. A look back through Sandoval’s minor league numbers shows some inconsistency in his power output (.373, .425, .322, .476, .578) but some of that got lost in Sandoval having to adjust to new levels. After building on a .578 AAA slugging % with a .556 major league slugging %, Sandoval’s power looked here to stay. But after 3 straight months of a sub -.350 slugging %, it looks unlikely we’ll see that recovery this year. With 3B so shallow its tough to let go of Sandoval’s upside in anything deeper than 8 team mixed leagues, but owners should at the very least be taking some shots at power upside with guys like Alex Gordon or Mike Lowell if you’re a Sandoval owner. With just 7 weeks left in the season, you’ve done enough waiting. While I wouldn’t discard Sandoval in traditional formats, I can certainly understand it and at the very least would get other options on the roster to start in front of him.
Allen Craig:
With the Cardinals looking to get a bit more offense in their lineup and having just lost David Freese for the season after a setback during rehab, they’re going to give Allen Craig the opportunity to start at 3B. Craig was primarily an OF in the minor leagues where he posted an impressive career line of .309/.370/.519 but he did start out as an infielder in the Cards system playing mostly 3B and 1B. He hasn’t played much 3B since 2008 so he’ll be eased into the role. His first appearance came in the 9th inning of Tuesday’s game and it went without an opportunity. He’ll likely get a couple starts a week there before he’s handed full time duty, but the increased flexibility and likelihood of AB’s gives Craig’s value a boost. In NL Only formats he should be owned, while those in mixed leagues can wait to see how quickly he adjusts to 3B and gets full PT.
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