Mitch Talbot – After posting a surprisingly solid 3.99 ERA prior to the All-Star break, Mitch Talbot has struggled in his last 6 starts to the tune of a 6.26 ERA and 1.90 WHIP to go along with 19 Ks and 16 free passes in just 27.1 innings. Talbot faces the White Sox today in hopes of righting the ship but I wouldn’t bank on that happening. Talbot’s K/BB is a meager 1.20 and his FIP has climbed to 4.64 for the season. He’s recorded a first-pitch strike % of just 54% (compared to the league average of 59%) and batters make contact on 86% of the pitches at which they swing (compared to 80% for the league). Aside from becoming more hittable of late, Talbot's wildness (4.04 BB/9) isn’t justified by his poor K/9 of 4.84. Any fantasy value Talbot had during the first half of the season is gone and he’s not worth a roster spot in any fantasy league format.
Trevor Cahill – There’s been lots of debate lately in the sabermetrics community regarding Trevor Cahill and his unsustainable (or sustainable, depending on who you ask) BABIP of .217. People much smarter than I have made good points on why Cahill can’t continue to enjoy such a low BABIP. I agree with this sentiment. Once the BABIP regresses, I don’t expect Cahill to finish the season with a sub-3.00 ERA. He’s certainly a good fantasy pitcher with his current 2.43 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, but according to his FIP of 4.04, the Oakland right hander is getting lucky. Compared to 2009, Cahill has improved his BB/9 (3.63 in ’09/2.66 in ’10) and K/9 (4.53 in ’09/5.09 in ’10) while drastically lowering his HR/9 (1.36 in ’09/0.75 in ’10). Perhaps most importantly, Cahill has upped his GB% from 47% in ’09 to 56% this season which has helped him lower his HR rate. Continue to start Cahill but it’s hard to imagine that BABIP remaining in the low .200s for much longer. He draws a challenging matchup against the Yankees later today.
Adam Lind – The Blue Jays’ outfielder connected for his 19th HR of the season and drove in 3 during Toronto’s 10-4 loss against the Tigers on Sunday. After posting an outstanding .305/.370/.562 slash line with 35 HRs in 2009, Lind has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball this season. Entering Sunday, Lind was hitting just .234/.291/.411 with 18 HRs. The outfielder’s ISO has dropped from .257 to just .176 while his BABIP is down 46 points from last season. Part of the problem is that Lind isn’t nearly as patience at the plate this season. He’s swinging at 35% of pitches outside the strike zone (compared to 24% in ’09) while making contact on just 78% of his swings, which is a career-low mark. Those extra swings-and-misses have caused Lind to post a 26% K% compared to just 18% in ’09. The BABIP may bounce back but until Lind improves his patience, he will continue to struggle.
Jeremy Guthrie – After posting an ugly 5.04 ERA in 2009, Jeremy Guthrie has bounced back this season to record a 4.13 mark heading into yesterday’s start. He completely dominated the Angels on Sunday, allowing 0 ER on 4 hits while walking 1 and striking out 5 in 8 1/3 innings of work. Part of Guthrie’s success this season is because of a significant drop in his HR/9 from 1.58 in ’09 to 1.07 in ’10. He’s also slightly increased his K/BB from 1.83 in ’09 to 1.98 this season while enjoying a 25-point BABIP drop from .294 to .269. His WHIP has also decreased from 1.42 to just 1.20. Overall, Guthrie’s numbers in 2010 are much more in line with his ’07 and ’08 marks so it’s safe to consider his ’09 season to be a blip on the radar and not reflective of Guthrie’s actual ability. You can spot start him against weaker lineups but don’t forget that his K/9 is just 4.70 and he plays for Baltimore so he can only really help you in ERA, WHIP and Quality Starts.
CJ Wilson – The Rangers’ lefty faces the Royals today in hopes of picking up his 14th win in 2010. Wilson’s sparkling 3.02 ERA is slightly deceptive as he’s posting just a 1.84 K/BB (including more than 4 walks per 9) and enjoying a .263 BABIP compared to a career .294 mark. He’s allowing just 0.44 HR/9 and has a K/9 of 7.35 – the lowest mark since his 2005 rookie season. However, since the All-Star break, Wilson is a crisp 6-0 with a 9.2 K/9 and has allowed just1 HR in 51 innings of work . Interestingly, during this time, Wilson’s BABIP has regressed to .286 which is much closer to his career mark but he hasn’t seen a dip in his overall performance. As the fantasy baseball playoffs begin, Wilson may draw some tough teams early in September (MIN, TOR, NYY) but gets 10 games against Seattle and Oakland between Sept. 17th and Sept. 26th.
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