Evan Longoria- TB- Idea- Longoria’s decrease in power may be coming from a lack of proper plate discipline. He is taking more pitches, swinging at only 43.9% of them, down from 44.7% last year. However, he is swinging at 25.7% of pitches outside the strike zone, up from 25.2% in 2009 and swinging at 43.9% of pitches inside the zone, down from 44.7% last year. His contact rate for pitches outside the strike zone has gone up from 56.1% in 2009 to 62.6% this season. What this means is that he is getting wood on fewer pitches in his sweet spot and probably explains his decrease in home run power. Longoria needs to not just wait on pitches, but swing at the good ones.
Trevor Cahill- OAK- Hot- Cahill posted his 6th straight quality start, allowing 1 unearned run on 7 hits and 2 walks in 7 IP while striking out 2. He thrives by inducing ground balls and had a 15/4 GB/FB ratio yesterday. Don’t expect Cahill to repeat this kind of success in 2011. He is highly unlikely to be able to duplicate his .217 BABIP, 56.0% GB% and 29.1% FB%. However, his 5.09 K/9 is a distinct possibility. That all adds up to a lower level of expected production next year.
Phil Hughes- NYY- Cold- There has been concern about Hughes’ stamina as we get late in the season. It has looked as though the Yankees had been pacing him well, as he had turned in 3 consecutive quality starts. Last night, however, Hughes turned in his worst outing of the season, throwing 102 pitches before getting yanked after 3.2 IP in which he gave up 5 runs on 6 hits and 5 walks. Hughes did manage to notch 5 strikeouts. Consider this an aberration for now but if there is a repeat of something close to this disaster, turn up the worry meter a notch.
Vernon Wells- TOR- Hot- Wells has regained plate discipline, with a .64 Batting EYE in August. He is now on a major roll. Wells has gone 9-for-21 in his current 5-game hitting streak and last night hit his first homer since August 3rd. There may also be some regression to the mean at work here, as his BABIP is at .280 even after this hot streak.
Jonathan Papelbon- BOS- Hot- Although he didn’t strike out anyone yesterday while earning his 32nd save, Papelbon’s K ratio has been on the upswing. He has 15 strikeouts in 11.1 IP in August, a rate much more in keeping with his career. Keep an eye on this for the rest of the season, as it can impact his value in 2011. With good luck (.237 BHIP) and a declining strikeout rate in 2010, Papelbon’s indicators for 2011 were headed south. If he has regained his power pitching ability, though, that assessment will change.
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