Matt Joyce OF (TB) – While it’s a small sample size (99 plate appearances), I’m really encouraged by Joyce’s increased patience this season. The 25 YO is walking a whopping 16.2% of the time. I’m buying this as real because even as a 23 YO rookie Joyce walked 11.2% of the time. Combine that with a slight reduction in the whiffs, and Joyce has a very solid .84 EYE. That patience, along with Joyce’s potential to put up power numbers (career 46.6 FB%, 16 HR/FB%) should yield very positive results over the rest of the season. Joyce’s bad luck is masking some of his progress/potential as his extremely unlucky .120 singles average is putting a dent into his overall numbers. If your searching the waiver wire for an OF down the stretch, Joyce could easily be your guy.
Matt Garza SP (TB) – Garza followed up his no hitter with a pretty decent showing against the Yankees. He struck out 9 versus just 1 walk over 7 IP. However, of the 5 hits he gave up, all 5 were of the extra base variety, including 2 HR. Garza’s career path is a bit interesting. His K/BB ratio seems to be climbing every year: 2.09/2.17/2.39/2.52. However, his GB% seems to be falling every year: 47.7%/41.7%/39.7%/34.5%. Compounding that problem is an ever rising HR/FB%: 8.2%/8.4/10.2/11.4. Naturally, as a result, his HR/9 has risen every year: .87/.93/1.11/1.33. So, while usually a consistent rise in K/BB ratio leads to a falling ERA for a young pitcher like Garza, his inability to keep the ball in the park has actually led to a consistent uptick in ERA: 3.69/3.70/3.95/4.11. Unless Garza goes back to being more GB oriented, his ERA will always prevent him from moving up to the next tier of fantasy SP.
Billy Butler 1B (KC) – Butler hit his tenth homer of the season last night. I had written a couple of times earlier in the season that Butler’s power could break out at any point, but it just hasn’t happened. What’s disappointing long term is not only did Butler not breakout, but he showed no progress in terms of developing his power. Butler’s FB% is just 33.3% and down from the 34.6% that it was in each of the previous two seasons. Butler’s ISO has dipped from .191 to .143, and his HR/FB%, which took an encouraging jump forward last season, is down four percentage points to 7.9%. That is an extremely low number for a 1B. Butler did see a huge improvement in his EYE (from .56 to .94). It’s certainly possible that the power improvement is just lagging behind as Butler is only 24 YO. However, unless something changes over the rest of the season, I can’t see myself predicting a power outbreak for Butler. I’m viewing him as a .300 hitter on a bad team who maxes out around 20 HR. At his position, those numbers leave a lot to be desired.
Dan Haren SP (LAA) – For those of you that follow me on twitter, you know I keep waiting for the Dan Haren resurgence. Now with his move to the AL, I finally get to write about him in this space. I think he’s still an elite level pitcher as indicated by his outstanding 5.14 K/BB ratio and rising K/9. He has been unlucky, though, with a 14.1 HR/FB% (3 percentage points higher than career mark), .355 BABIP (50 points above career mark) and 71.5 LOB% (1.7 percentage points lower than career mark). The switch in ballparks along with some regression should help his homer rate, and if his first two starts are any indication (14 K’s, 2 BB’s), the switch to the AL shouldn’t hurt him too much. Haren has an xFIP of 3.32, and I think that mark is much more indicative of his skill than his current 4.57 ERA.
