Luke Scott OF (BAL) – Scott hit his 22nd homer of the year last night, and this now marks the third consecutive season in which Scott has hit 20+ homers. Scott has all of the skills for a near elite power guy. He keeps pitchers honest as evidenced by his career walk rate of 10.7%. His swing generates a lot of loft, and as a result he consistently hits a large amount of fly balls. This is the 4th year in a row in which Scott has had a FB% of over 40%, and his career FB% is 42.4%. Also, Scott has above average raw power that can be seen in his career 15.7 HR/FB%. He has been better than that in three of the last four seasons, though, posting HR/FB% of 16.2, 14, 16.7 and 20.8. He will make a run at 30 HR for the first time in his career, and if he is able to hit 3 more homers it will mean he has hit more homers than the previous year for every year in his career.
Marc Rzepczynski SP (TOR) – Rzepczynski pitched very well for the Jays last night, shutting out the Angels for 7 innings in which he generated 6 K’s and 12 ground ball outs versus just 3 fly ball outs. Rzepczynski did not walk any batters. I think Rzepczynski is an immediate grab in most leagues. In 3 starts (18.1 IP), Rzepczynski has a 9.33 K/9, 0.98 BB/9 and 48.1 GB% which have yielded an FIP and xFIP of 3.26. Rzepczynski is unlikely to be this good all season, but he did post a 3.67 ERA and 3.70 xFIP last season thanks to an above average K/9 (8.80) and GB% (51.2). So, the only thing really different about Rzepczynski so far this season is a huge increase in control, but that’s something we’d expect out of a 24 YO with some major league experience the year prior. He’ll start walking more batters as the starts go on, but it may be more at the rate of his minor league career (3.5/9) than that of last season in the majors (4.40/9), which is certainly fine when teamed up with his above average whiff and ground ball rates.
Michael Brantley OF (CLE) – So far this season, in the time Brantley has been given at the majors he has not flashed the speed we expected out of him, but his .200 BA and .271 OBP haven’t exactly given him much opportunity. However, Brantley has stolen bases in two consecutive games, and he could help those in need of steals down the stretch run. For starters, Brantley’s solid .81 EYE certainly lends itself towards someone with a better batting average. Unfortunately, a dreadful .193 singles average is completely derailing Brantley’s batting average. With his speed and plate discipline, we should certainly expect that number to begin to revert towards the league average which is around .245. That would put Brantley’s overall batting average nearly 50 points higher, and I think .250 is on the lower end of what he’ll hit from here on out. At AAA last season, Brantley stole 46 bases in just 116 games, and in a couple stints there this season he stole 13 bases in 67 games. So, with an expected increase in opportunity (correction of singles average, already good 8.9 BB%) and a recent track record of speed in the minors, Brantley could be in line for a good amount of steal for the rest of the season.
Jeremy Guthrie SP (BAL) – Guthrie hurled six scoreless innings last night for the O’s while snagging his 7th victory of the year. After two straight seasons of sub 4 ERA’s as a starter, Guthrie struggled last year to the tune of a 5.04 ERA and an FIX and xFIP that were both even higher. However, Guthrie has rebounded this year and once again has a sub 4 ERA (3.88). The good news for Guthrie owners, as well as the main reason for his bounce back in ERA, is that he has begun generating ground balls once again. He is still below league average, but his 41.9 GB% this season is 7.2 percentage points better than last season and more in line with his sub 4 ERA seasons prior to ’09 (42.5/43.8). The bad news for Guthrie owners is that in his 4th season as a starter, his ability to miss bats continues to decline. Here are Guthrie’s K/9 the past 4 seasons: 6.31/5.66/4.95/4.76. He will be unable to sustain his current ERA with his current whiff rate, particularly once his BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB% normalize, as all three are beating Guthrie’s career averages at the present moment.
Jason Vargas SP (SEA) – I really expect Vargas to struggle for the rest of the season. He has an okay 2.26 K/BB ratio, but that’s where his skills end. However, he sports a 3.12 ERA thanks to a lot of luck. He is a FB risky pitcher as evidenced by his 37.6 GB%, but thanks to a 6.3 HR/FB% which is below both Vargas’ career mark (8.5%) and the ML average (10-11%), Vargas has yielded just .84 HR/9. Vargas also has a 78.6 LOB% which is very high for someone with both a low GB rate and low K rate. The ML average is around 72%, and Vargas’ career mark is 71.2%. On balls in play, it’s the same story. Vargas’ BABIP of .273 is beating his career average of .290 and ML average of around .300. These numbers are unsustainable for Vargas and a spike in ERA is on the horizon.
