Scott Baker:
Its been frustrating watch Scott Baker continue to show great peripherals without any signs of a turnaround. Well on Sunday night we finally got a taste as Baker tossed 7 shutout innings against the Angels allowing just 5 hits and 2 bb’s while striking out 4. It was just his 4th quality start in his last 11 outings which is astounding for a guy with a 4.00 FIP. Baker’s improved his K, BB, and GB Rates this season and the switch to Target Field should be an improvement given its playing as the hardest stadium to hit a HR in, but it just hasn’t worked out yet. The peripherals suggest those who are patient will get a big turnaround at some point but its hard to have faith with how inconsistent Baker has been this season. He’ll get a start in SEA next week which should be another tremendous matchup that owners should look to take advantage of before getting DET at home the following week. The schedule sets up well and the peripherals are there, perhaps last night was the start of a run.
Will Rhymes:
Rhymes was the leading force in an offensive onslaught by the Tigers on Sunday. He went 4-5 scoring 3 Runs and knocking in 1. With the Tigers struggling to find options at 2B, Rhymes has seen some playing time of late and has produced to the tune of .310/.347/.394. He doesn’t have much pop, but makes excellent contact (94% contact rate at major league level, 8% K Rate at AAA), shows decent plate discipline (8.5% BB Rate), and has run at the minor league level (22 SB’s this season). With Carlos Guillen on the disabled list, AL Only league owners can do worse than Rhymes whose good contact skills, adequate speed, and lineup positioning (batting 2nd), should result in adequate 3 category production (Avg-Runs-SBs).
Kurt Suzuki:
Suzuki was one of my favorite catcher targets this season as I play in a lot of H2H points leagues where his playing time advantage over other peers gives him a lot of hidden value. It’s been a difficult season that has been exaggerated by a horrid August in which Suzuki has hit just .148/.221/.197. The power improvements Suzuki was demonstrating early in the season were making up for a decreased LD Rate as he was sacrificing BA for power, but as the power has evaportated, Suzuki’s value has plummeted. The power outage is easily explained by an increase in GB’s over the last 3 months, but with more Ground Balls we should at least see some tradeoff in Suzuki’s batting average. Unfortunately a .164 BABIP here in August (despite a 16% LD Rate) has squelched any value Suzuki could bring. With his bat slowing, he’s been getting more days out of the lineup as his days off for catching arent’ spent in the DH slot as often. Although his K Rate has consistently climbed this season (K Rate by month since May): 3.7%, 7.3%, 9.1%. 11.6% his EYE has actually been ok (.71 in August, .88 in July). I have some hopes that Suzuki can break out of this, but the slump has been extended and Suzuki’s rising K Rates and GB Rates aren’t positive indicators. His value has already been on the decline and while he’ll likely rebound from this low, his overall value remains in a downward slope.
Zack Greinke:
Greinke got some of the correction in his LOB% that he’s deserved this season on Sunday as he allowed 10 base-runners over 8 innings, but limited the damage to just 2 ER’s. He struck out 9 which brings his K/9 back up to 7.66 for the season. Looking across Greinke’s last 4 seasons he’s posted K/9’s of 7.82, 8.14, 9.50, 7.66. A look at the data reveals his 2009 season as a bit of an outlier, but dig deeper and you’ll see some unusual numbers in his swing rates this season compared to season’s past. This year h’es increased his Outside Swing Rate to 30% and in fact this has been on the incline: 23.3%, 24%, 26.9%, 30%. Typically with more pitches out of the zone you’d see more swings and misses and a jump in K’s, but Greinke’s outside zone contact rate has been unusually high at 70.5%. A look bact at his last few years you see: 54%, 60%, 56%, 71%. On the surface it looks as if Greinke’s 2009 season can’t be replicated because the high K Rate he posted that season would seem unsustainable, but a deeper look reveals that with a little less contact on pitches outside the zone, Greinke’s K Rate could jump right back up to the high 8’s. It’s the difference between an Ace and a #2-#3 type fantasy SP and while we might not see it this season, it’s worthwhile information to store-away for next draft season when Greinke’s value slides back and he’s treated more as a borderline #2.
Luke Scott:
Scott continued his torrid 2nd half with another HR on Sunday in a 1-4 effort. He now has 12 HR’s in the 2nd half and has posted an OPS above 1.000. He’s shown a tremendous improvement in Contact Rate as the season has worn on (K Rates by month): 23.9%, 25.7%, 25.6%, 18.4%, 15.3% and with the increased contact rates is no longer a batting average drain. He’s been producing as an elite power bat for 2.5 months now and should be considered one for the rest of the season. How contending teams aren’t making a run at Scott’s bat is absolutely beyond me.
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