Brett Lawrie – Second Base Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers Brett Lawrie may already be, at 20 years old, the best second base prospect in the minors, especially from a fantasy standpoint where you can throw out his defensive limitations. Except of course, you can’t even do that from a fantasy standpoint because his defensive issues may move him from second base and that could significantly affect his potential value. The Brewers actually entertained thoughts of converting the 5-11/200 right-handed hitter to catcher after drafting him with their first round pick in 2008, but that plan fizzled quickly.
Perhaps because he spent a lot of his youth playing with wood bats, Brett adapted to the pros quickly despite missing his signing year completely due to contract negotiations and his desire to compete for Canada on their Junior and Olympic teams. He is very quick to the ball and has that kind of innate pop that launches the ball off his bat. Brett covers the whole strike zone well because he will hit the ball, with authority, wherever it is pitched, driving the ball from foul line to foul line.
Like most sluggers, Brett will fan a bit, striking out 18.8% in low-A ball last year, and he fanned 21.3% of the time in his last 122 ABs of that year before jumping to AA as a 19-year-old with less than 400 pro ABs. This year he’s fanning 21.5% of the time as a 20-year-old in AA, but he’s hitting .302 with the help of a .369 BHIP% and slugging .483 with 6 HRs, 21 doubles, and 10 (count ‘em) triples … Intriguing huh?
If you like that, you are going to love his 22 stolen bases so far this year, giving him 41 in his pro career. He gets caught a lot too (22 times career) but that’s something that can be improved and in fact he already shows gains in his speed game this year.
Hopefully his defense can be improved too, because Brett has the potential at least to develop into a 20/20 player, with a few 15/15 seasons being a very realistic possibility … and that would look really good with a second base qualification.
There’s a grade deduction if he is forced to a corner IF or OF position but as a second baseman …
Long-Term Fantasy Grade – A-
Seas Lvl AB XBH HR SB AVG BB% K% OBP SLG 2009 A 372 36 13 19 .274 9.7 18.8 .348 .454 2009 AA 52 1 0 0 .269 0.0 26.9 .283 .308 2010 AA 326 37 6 22 .301 9.2 21.7 .364 .482
Ben Revere – OF Minnesota Twins
The man has stolen 113 bases over his last two plus seasons. Have I got your attention? Stolen bases are always a hot fantasy commodity and the Twins 22-year-old centerfielder, Ben Rivera should provide them in bunches when he arrives in the major leagues. The follow up question however, when it comes to speedy outfielders is usually “What else can he do?”.
Rivera was the Twins’ first round pick in 2007. He’s 5-9, 165 which tells you a lot about his power potential, but he’s a true slasher. Ben has solid contact skills which become painful for opposing pitchers when combined with his elite speed and outstanding zone command.
Over the span I mentioned, where he stole 113 bases, Ben struck out just 89 times and he drew 93 walks . This year in his first taste of AA, Ben has hit .307. His .382 BHIP% is favorable no doubt about it, but he has hit the ball on the ground nearly 54% of the time, using his speed and contributing to that percentage. Speed players can often produce higher-than-mean BHIP%s with some consistently and Ben has posted BHIP%s of .358, .416, .330, and .382 in his first four pro seasons. That 54% GB% is within specs too. It is the same rate at which he produced ground balls last year, and lower than his percentages in 2007 and 2008.
Ben looks like a very good lead off candidate and that declaration leads us to the OBP column where Ben has shined, posting OBPs of .388, .433, .372 over his previous 3 seasons, and .382 this year. Power and RBI production will be an issue, but Ben uses the whole field and will spray some doubles and triples down the lines and in the gaps if your league scores XBH or SLG%.
The Twins have surplus in the system in terms of leadoff hitter prospects which suggests that Revere’s future is in another organization. Ben appears to hit well enough, and control his strike zone well enough, to carve out a career as a leadoff hitter in the majors, possibly starting as early as mid-season next year … and with a regular gig, he will steal 30+ bases at the major league level. There may not be much else in the way of offensive contributions, but that ain’t bad.
Long-Term Fantasy Grade B-
Seas Lvl AB XBH HR SB AVG BB% K% OBP SLG 2007 R 191 16 0 21 .325 6.0 10.5 .388 .461 2008 A 340 28 1 44 .379 7.2 9.1 .433 .497 2009 A+ 466 19 2 45 .311 7.7 7.3 .372 .369 2010 AA 241 10 1 24 .307 10.7 9.5 .380 .361
