Tim Hudson – The Braves’ right hander faces the Marlins this afternoon, bringing an impressive 2.37 ERA and 8-3 record into his start. Unfortunately for Hudson’s fantasy owners and the Braves, the crafty veteran is benefiting from a ton of luck as his FIP (4.37) is a full 2 runs above his ERA and his LOB% is an incredible and unsustainable 84%. Hudson’s also enjoying a .234 BABIP which is 101 points below last season’s mark and 53 points below his career norm. Finally, and perhaps most alarmingly, Hudson’s K/9 and BB/9 have both showed negative trends as the former has dropped from 6.38 in ’09 to just 4.32 in ’10 while the latter is up from 2.76 in ’09 to 3.39 in ’10. That’s a K/BB of just 1.28, folks, and that’s not going to continue to support an ERA in the low 2.00s. Expect Hudson to experience a significant regression in the coming weeks and feel free to sell high now to an owner who’ll fall in love with the low ERA and high Win total.
Jason Hammel – Talk about consistency. Colorado’s Jason Hammel, who faces off against the Giants today, has tallied numbers in 2010 that are nearly identical to his 2009 marks when he finished 10-8. Hammel’s ERA (4.32/’10, 4.33/’09), FIP (3.70/’10, 3.71/’09), GB% (46.3%/’10, 46.2%/’09), HR/9 (0.82/’10, 0.87/’09), K/9 (7.01/’10, 6.78/’09), BB/9 (2.45/’10, 2.14/’09), BABIP (.332/’10, .337/’09) and LOB% (71.6%/’10, 69.5%/’09) are amazingly close between the SP’s first 77 innings this season and his 176 innings in 2009. That’s good news for his fantasy owners as Hammel is certainly relevant in almost all league formats. With a bit of regression, his ERA should fall below 4.00 by season’s end, especially if he continues limiting HRs and posting a nearly 3/1 K/BB ratio. If you’re looking for a sleeper SP, Hammel is a good bet as indicated by his ability to post a 3.70 FIP the past year and a half. He’s obviously able to repeat past success and should be a nice No. 5 SP in your fantasy team's rotation.
Mike Stanton – I really wish everyone would refer to Mike Stanton by his full name: Giancarlo Cruz-Michael Stanton. It just has a nice ring to it. Prior to his call up, the 20-year old phenom was expected to do two things in the majors – hit a lot of HRs and strike out an awful lot. So far, he’s done much more of the latter than the former. After going 0-for-4 Saturday with 2 Ks against the Braves, Stanton has 2 HRs but is striking out in 42% of his ABs. Let’s just say when your strikeout totals make Mark Reynolds blush, you should probably be a tad concerned. The other issue is that Stanton isn’t walking nearly as often as he did at AA (8% BB% in the majors compared to 18% in the minors this season). A drop in his walk rate shouldn’t be too surprising considering few 20-year olds make the jump from AA to the MLBs without struggling. Still, Stanton’s owners would certainly like to see a few more HRs and Walks to go with a decrease in strikeouts. For now, Stanton remains an outstanding long-term option (obviously) and should still be on rosters in one-year leagues because of the power potential. By the time your league’s playoffs start, Stanton could be a very nice asset as a No. 3 OF as he becomes more accustomed to major league pitching and improves his HR and Walk rates.
Johnny Cueto – The Reds’ right hander labored through 5 innings, escaping jams in nearly every frame, but somehow managed to shut out the Cubs on Saturday afternoon. I attended the game yesterday and to say Cueto was lucky is quite an understatement. He couldn’t locate any of his pitches, often times missing his spots badly. He “induced” two very hard hit ground balls that were rocketed right at Brandon Phillips to end threats in the 3rd and 5th and finished the game having allowed 13 bases runners in just 5 innings. And by throwing 101 pitches so early in the game, Cueto had to be prematurely pulled which meant the Reds' weak bullpen was tasked with pitching 4 innings in a tie game. Needless to say, that didn’t end well as Cincinnati’s relief corps yielded 3 runs in 3 innings of work as the Reds lost 3-1. Back to Cuteo – prior to Saturday’s start, his K/9 was down just slightly from ’09 (6.93 to 6.75) while his BB/9 had dropped from 3.20 to 2.65. It’s obviously a good sign that Cueto’s K/BB has moved from 2.16 in ’09 to 2.55 this season. But more importantly, Cueto is doing an excellent job limiting HRs. His HR/9 is just 0.73 in ’10 after being at 1.50 and 1.26 in ’08 and ’09, respectively. Overall, Cueto’s FIP is significantly lower in ’10 compared to the previous two seasons (3.78 in ’10, 4.69 in ’09, 4.90 in ’08) and based off his other indicators, it appears the 24-year old is continuing to evolve and develop into a solid SP in all league formats.
Ricky Nolasco – The Marlins’ right hander posted a crummy 5.06 ERA in 2009 but recorded a sparkling 3.35 FIP – the second straight season he posted a sub-4.00 FIP. However, as Nolasco enters his start today against the Braves, he’s really scuffling to the tune of a 4.84 ERA and 4.69 FIP. Nolasco’s K/9 has dropped from 9.49 in ’09 to just 7.17 in ’10 and his HR/9 has rocketed to an unsightly 1.77 (compared to 1.12 in ’09). While his LOB% is actually up 11%, indicating Nolasco’s benefited from luck, this increase is mostly due to regression as the righty was unlucky in this area last season. While Nolasco’s owners are used to the pitcher’s high ERAs, they aren’t accustomed to the lower K/9 rate. It’s much easier to deal with a bad ERA when it’s accompanied by a good strikeout total. That’s not the case in 2010 for Nolasco. Considering Nolasco’s career K/9 is 7.80, perhaps the 2009 strikeout rate was an aberration and his ability is much closer to the pitcher we’re seeing this season.
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