David Wright (3B—Mets) David Wright had a two homer night on Friday and the pitiful ten that he hit all of last year is a thing of the past. Interestingly enough, there were those that were a little skittish of Wright at the start of the season as if Superman had somehow lost all of his power and had become a mere mortal. For that reason, Wright may have gone later or for less auction dollars than usual in drafts. But, Wright is back on top of his game as one of the elite third baseman in baseball. The crazy strikeouts this year has been surprising as he has a 29.8% rate which projects him to wind up with around 181 k's for the season. That would be around 40 more strikeouts than his previous career high. But...and this is a big but...for June and July, Wright's strikeout rate has gone down to 24% compared to 37% in May and 34% in April. Huge swings that indicate to me, along with his usual solid line drive rate of 20+% and usual high BHIP of around .378 that a .300 average is well within sight for Wright. Wright should wind up with 25-30 home runs on the season and about 110 RBI and a .300 average. Very solid numbers for the fantasy stud.
Roy Oswalt (SP—Phillies) Maybe it was opening night jitters. Maybe it was the whirlwind and excitement of going from a team that is far from contention to one that is smack dab in the thick of things. But Roy Oswalt's debut against the Nationals on Friday fell far short of what Phillie fans and Oswalt fantasy had wanted. The new chapter on Oswalt's career started off with a murder as he was handed his 13th loss of the season pitching six innings and allowing 4 earned runs. Yesterday, fellow colleague Drew highlighted the trade and indicated that Oswalt's HR/FB would most like take a bump pitching at Citizen's Bank Park. In fact, I took a look at Oswalt's flyball outs at Minute Maid and was able to determine that five of those outs in Houston would have been home runs in Philadelphia. But pitching behind a potent offense will convert more wins for Oswalt which I also agree with Drew on. But since the All-Star break, Oswalt has been struggling to find his first-half rhythm. He's started three games and has amassed a 7.20 ERA over those outings. However, it's also noteworthy that for his career pitching at Citizen's Bank Park, Oswalt has a 4-0 record with 2.60 ERA and only one home run allowed. Despite the shaky start, Oswalt should benefit from this trade and owners should make out on the plus side as well.
J.A. Happ (SP—Astros) The other guy in the Roy Oswalt deal faired far better than Oswalt in his debut for the Astros. J.A. Happ manhandled the Milwaukee lineup and the likes of Corey Hart, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. He pitched six scoreless innings allowing just two hits while striking out six. It was a promising debut but I've never been a big backer of Happ. He's never possessed great component stats and despite the strong outing on Friday his K/9 of 5.2 and BB/9 of 7.0 don't inspire much confidence. He's ERA may be nifty at 1.76 but his WHIP is almost as high at 1.63. He's been getting a lot done with smoke and mirrors as he has a LOB rate of 89%. Right now, I can't tell the difference between Happ and Houdini. He won't notch the wins either since the 'Stros struggle to score runs and with Lance Berkman now playing for the Yankees, the offense will take a major hit. It might be enticing to pick up Happ, especially after Friday's outing, but I'd refrain as I would expect the bottom to fall out and starts like Friday's will be less frequent.
Carlos Zambrano (SP—Cubs) Carlos Zambrano was reinstated off the suspended list on Friday. He's temper tantrums had gotten the best of him on and off the mound and after a few sessions of anger management treatment, the Cubs pronounced him good to go. Now whether this kinder gentler Zambrano will be found sitting under a tree smelling flowers or beating up water coolers in the dugout remains to be seen. But the temper has been a liability for Zambrano that brings out a competitive fire but also brings out emotions that sabotage his skills as a pitcher. To date, Zambrano has opponents feasting off his pitching with a .302 batting average. His ERA has ballooned to 5.65 along with a WHIP of 1.68. For now, he may be back on the team, but he will have to earn the right to be moved back into the starting rotation. He will be pitching out of the bullpen for the foreseeable future. Unless your league rewards middle men, it's probably best to take a “wait and see” approach with Zambrano. Depending on his outings, his effectiveness and temper, the Cubs may move him back to the rotation. But wait until an announcement is made on that before picking him up. But be aware that may be a risky decision too.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF—Rockies) Carlos Gonzalez has been mashing the ball this month with a .357 batting average, eight home runs and a 1.000 OPS. It may be difficult for him to sustain the .300+ batting average for the whole season. His BHIP of .368 is very high compared to his career norm of .339 and the LD% is just 19.4% so we could see a little slowing down for Gonzalez especially with a 76% contract rate and an EYE of 0.20. Gonzalez has only walked 18 times this year (4 of them intentional) so imagine how his .340 OBP would improve if he was a little more disciplined. He's been enjoying Coors Field quite a bit as he has a .360 average at home and has hit 16 of his 20 home runs there. He's also struck out just 28 time at home compared to 64 on the road. Quite a disparity. Still at 24 years old, he is having a breakout year and should continue to produce. Keep him active in all formats.
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