Jason Bay (OF - Mets) - Jason Bay continues to be nonexistent in the fantasy stats category. For July, he’s hitting just .169 with no home runs, 8 RBI, and just 2 extra base hits. He has 20 K’s to go along with it with only 5 BB. Now, everybody is entitled to an off month here and there in a long career. But Bay is coming off a May where he had just 3 HR and hit .250, so its not exactly like he’s been red-hot for extended periods of time this season. Bay is a big name, making it tough to part with him in a lot of league formats. But take a look at his full line and then compare him to waiver wire options and I’d bet there are upgrades to be had for a very low price. For the record, Bay is hitting .257 with a .749 OPS, FPI of 0.59, AB/HR of 56.0 and a BB/K of 0.49. The one positive note is he is a perfect 10-for-10 in SB, so when he does get on base (.346 OBP), he is running again.
Matt Holliday (OF - Cardinals) - You can’t stop Holliday. He already has 7 HRs this month with 19 RBI and we still have 10 days left in the month. He has even drawn more walks (11) than K’s (9) while hitting .333 for the month. The HR rate will have to slow down at some point, but for now he is averaging a HR for every 19.2 AB. Compare that to the last two seasons of 21.6 and 24.2. The last time he was in the “teens” was when he was in Colorado during those great seasons of 34 and 36 HR years and he posted the same rate of 17.7. There’s no doubt Holliday can keep the rate below 20.0.
Stephen Strasburg (SP - Nationals) - Strasburg is starting to pull away from the crowd for the NL Rookie of the Year nomination. Earning his 5th victory last night, Strasburg is on another planet when it comes to strikeouts. He has a K/I of 1.4 and a K/BB of 5.0 to help yield a 2.32 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Let’s not forget that he only has 9 big league starts to his career line to date. A look at his game log shows that it is pretty obvious that the Nationals are being careful with Strasburg. Despite the dominance, he has yet to break the 100-pitch mark in any game. The Nats have already capped his 2010 innings pitched at 160 IP for this season. At that rate, they will shut him down in September (yup, right in time for the fantasy homestretch). Enjoy the ride and be ready to stash him in keeper leagues (if you’re allowed), but start thinking about SP replacement if you think you’ll make the fantasy playoffs or are on your way to competing for that 1st spot in roto leagues.
Sean Marshall (RP - Cubs) - We don’t discuss the “Holds” statistic a lot in this space (mostly because few fantasy leagues actually utilize the modern metric), but Sean Marshall continues to impress in the setup role for the Cubs. With 13 holds for the season, Marshall ranks in the middle of the pack. But 6 of them have come in the last 3 weeks and he has allowed just 1 ER in the last 16 appearances. In fact, for July, he has a 0.84 ERA, 13 K’s vs. 2 BB, and has allowed just 6 hits in 10.2 IP. He’s more than just a lefty specialist at this point and deserves ownership in all Holds leagues.
Brian McCann (C - Braves) - McCann has been one of the best hitting catchers in the game over the last few years. While he has been a little quieter this year, he has still been solid. His OPS is at .829, down slightly from last year’s .832, but his FPI is steady at 0.65 for both last year and this season (off his career high of 0.73 in 2008). With his 12th HR of the season last night, his power is consistent as well. He is averaging an AB/HR of 23.1, also in-line with previous years of 28.0, 22.1, and 23.3 over the last three years. McCann looks to finish 2010 with another solid season, which should make his 2011 preseason projection very predictable and make draft day “easy” for valuation purposes.
