Wade LeBlanc: LeBlanc has a solid 3.35 ERA in 104.2 innings, but his skills don’t match up to the ERA, 6.0 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and a 37% GB%. A fortunate 82% S% and a .266 BHIP%, explains the discrepancy, which means there is some ERA downside risk. For someone with borderline dominance, LeBlanc is going to have to cut down on the free passes before he can be fully trusted. For now, it may be a good idea to bench him for road starts, while leaving him active when he pitches at home in pitcher-friendly Petco Field, road/home ERA’s 4.74/2.36.
Mike Leake: While on the surface it may appear that Leake is one of the top NL rookies, 7-2 with a 3.57 ERA, a deeper looks shows his skills to be pretty average, 5.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and a 49% GB%, with some good luck, 78% S%, helping out. Also, be aware that his monthly ERA splits, April/May/June/July ERA’s 3.25/1.88/5.22/4.56, shows that hitters are getting the better of him the second time around. You may want to use Leake carefully the rest of the way, especially benching him for tough, home starts.
David Bush: In the past it always seemed like Bush was getting the short end of the stick, 2007/2008/2009 S%’s 66%/69%/58%, but this year it looks like his 4.27 ERA, which isn’t even that impressive, is more the product of luck, 75% S% and a 221 BHIP%, than skill, 5.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and a 41% GB%. There is some heavy ERA risk here should Bush’s fortunes begin to normalize.
Paul Maholm: Maholm’s once good skills are in a three-year downtrend across the board, 2008/2009/2010 K/9’s 6.1/5.5/4.4, BB/9’s 2.7/2.8/.3.2, and GB%’s 54%/52%/50%, and his ERA. Some good luck, .231 BHIP% and a 7% HR/FB%, is masking the skills decline, 4.13 ERA. He should be avoided in mixed leagues and only used in favorable road matchups in NL-only leagues, road/home ERA’s 3.30/4.95.
Bronson Arroyo: Arroyo continues to get by, 10-6 with a 4.21 ERA, with poor skills, 4.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and a 44% GB%. He can thank a ridiculously low .196 BHIP% for his success. You don’t want him to be in your fantasy lineup if that BHIP% even mildly corrects, especially given his offense happy home stadium.
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