Ian Stewart:
After a blistering start to the season that saw Stewart hit .293/.386/.520 in April, Stewart has failed to post an OPS above .720 in either May or June. A closer look at the peripherals through the first 3 months don’t show much growth. Stewart’s unappealing EYE (.41 last season, .44 this season) has shown mild growth but his K Rate is still far too high (30+%) and his chase (outside swing rate) has actually increased up to 26%. The decline in his K Rate is just a result of him making more contact outside the zone, which has subsequently hurt his best asset: his power. After showing dramatic power improvements last season (.235 ISO), Stewart’s power has declined back below his 2008-2009 rates all the way down to .163. His batting average has improved as he’s traded some Fly Balls for LD’s (up to 25%) but he still strikes out so much that the extra batting average contribution is meaningless. Without elite power and now with some shared playing time, Stewart is a borderline option in mixed formats. He’s still living a bit off his great April in owners eyes and outside of OPS-based formats, I’m not sure how much value he has. With the flurry of 2B injuries to the top guys he certainly should be owned, but he shouldn’t be classified as undroppable if better or even “hotter” options exist.
Pablo Sandoval:
One of the big reasons we place such an emphasis on plate discipline in our projections (referred to as EYE) is because of the difference in consistency between players with good plate discipline. Those with poor discipline are more susceptible to inconsistent production not only in season but from season to season. This is some of what we’re seeing with Pablo Sandoval as Sandoval’s lack of plate discipline has resulted in a wildly different performance than his breakout 2009 campaign. Sandoval’s still swinging at over 40% of balls outside the zone but while last year he found a way to drive those balls with power, this season he’s struggling to square balls up. His ISO has dropped significantly. His LD Rate has dropped over 2% and he’s seeing far fewer fast balls (which he crushed last season) this year. Projecting Sandoval over the rest of the season is quite literally guesswork and his volatility takes a lot of the “education” out of it. He hasn’t slugged over .340 in any month since April and while he displayed some improved patience in June, its reverted here in July. Ultimately I think the power will come back in some form and something in between what we’ve gotten this year and last year is a fair expectation. With the Giants lineup showing improvement owners can take solace that some upside remains to Sandoval, but I’d be comfortable moving him for something a bit more reliable going forward even if I have to take less upside. A guy like Michael Young would be an obvious upgrade, but even a Casey McGehee is someone I’d feel more comfortable with going forward.
Aramis Ramirez:
It was just a week ago in this space I was concerned Aramis Ramirez’s mini-hitting streak was no different that his production earlier in the season, but after seeing multiple good swings in each of the last 4 games, I’m already ready to admit I was wrong. Ramirez homered three times and picked up 5 hits in 3 games in ARZ and then went 2-4 with a 2B against Kershaw/Broxton on Thursday night. All of his swings this week have resembled the Ramirez I’ve followed so closely the last few years and he’s been catching up to good fastballs, which were giving him problems early in the year. I’m not sure how to explain the sudden switch but he’s struck out just 4 times in his last 40 AB’s which is much more in line with his career rates and the power has obviously returned. I’m going to be wrong my fair share of times and all I can do when I am is admit it as soon as I see something that changes my opinion. The results are certainly a good indicator, but the swings I’ve seen and the pitches he’s gotten to of late are what really drive this opinion. If he’s still floating around in leagues run (don’t walk) to go get him.
Kelly Johnson:
One of the nuances of fantasy baseball is the ability not only to play matchups with regards to quality of opponent (like you can in basketball and football) but the fact that the uniqueness of splits extends to home-road and right-left as well, something you generally don’t get in other sports. So its our duty when there’s an obvious split to take advantage of with a player to make sure we point it out. So here you go. Kelly Johnson’s 2010 line: Home vs. Road prior to Thursday’s game: Home = .310/.423/.614, Road = .221/.309/.351. On Thursday night Kelly Johnson went 4-5 with a 3B, 2 Runs, and 3 RBI’s. Needless to say the game was played at Chase Field in Arizona. If you weren’t aware of Johnson’s splits make sure you are now. It’s a pretty simple formula to follow for success, keep him active when hitting in the hitters paradise that is Chase Field and reserve him when away from home.
Brad Lidge:
Lidge blew his 2nd consecutive save on Thursday night giving up 2 hits and 1 ER in blowing a 3-2 lead. While Lidge has been shaky since his return from the DL (allowing 7 ER’s in 10 2/3 innings), his peripherals have actually been pretty strong. Lidge is striking out batters at an enormous rate again (13.15 K/9) and his control is back to above average (2.77 BB/9). Throw in a near career low 15.6% LD Rate and the only blemish in Lidge’s peripherals is a 46% HR/FB Rate. Looking at his game log the majority of the runs he’s given up since returning from the DL are due to the HR and with a 20% HR/FB Rate there should be some positive regression in his future. While Lidge looks shaky in the closer’s role based on the recent blown saves, his skills actually suggest he’ll be fine going forward. Now might be a nice time to buy low on Lidge.
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