Tommy Hunter – The Rangers’ portly right hander draws yet another weak-hitting lineup when he toes the rubber against the Orioles today. Through his first six starts, Hunter has been lights out, allowing just 8 ER in more than 36 innings for a 1.98 ERA. Hunter’s improved his K/BB from 1.94 in ’09 to 2.22 in ’10 but is striking out just 4.95 batters per 9 and benefiting from a 0.25 HR/9 rate. While the ERA is certainly impressive, keep in mind Hunter’s faced the following lineups in his six starts: Tampa Bay (struggling at the time), Seattle, Florida, Pittsburgh, Houston and the Chicago White Sox. Not all those teams have bad offenses but none really standout either. It’s a small sample size, but Hunter’s also enjoyed a bit of luck as his LOB% is 79% while his BABIP is just .244. Throughout his career, Hunter has also struggled to rack up the strikeouts as his highest minor league mark was just 7.71 per 9 at High A ball in 2008. Continue to deploy him against light-hitting opponents but be aware that Hunter isn’t going to maintain anywhere near his current FIP of 3.31 all season.
Jayson Nix – The one sentence I never thought I’d hear in my life was uttered Wednesday night by the Texas Rangers’ TV play-by-play commentator, Josh Lewin. During the bottom of the 8th in the game between the Indians and Rangers (with the Rangers leading by 1 run), Lewin proclaimed: “The one guy you have to worry about in the 9th, if it gets to him, is Jayson Nix.” Now, listen, I get that Jayson Nix has homered 5 times in the past 5 games (including another last night), but is anyone really worried about Jayson Nix? The guy is hitting .233/.324/.478 for the season and that stat line includes his recent hot streak. In his only major league season when he received more than 100 ABs (2009), Nix posted a .716 OPS while hitting 12 HRs playing in homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago. Nix should continue to see every day ABs but isn’t worth a roster spot on any fantasy team regardless of how well he’s hitting the ball right now or how dangerous Lewin thinks he might be in the 9th inning of a 1-run game.
Jose Bautista – Moved into the 3rd spot in the lineup, Jose Bautista continued to hit HRs on Wednesday, only this time he did it the hard way with an inside-the-park shot for his 22nd of the season. After a sizzling start to 2010, Bautista’s BA and OBP have dwindled back to his career norms (.233 and .355, respectively) but he continues to post a very impressive ISO (.292) and SLG% (.524). It remains to be seen whether Bautista can continue with this type of power, especially considering his career-best OPS is just .757 (compared to .880 in ’10). He does have a .180 career ISO and has collected at least 15 HRs in limited ABs during 3 of the past 4 seasons so it’s not like he’ll suddenly become a Jason Kendall clone. If you own Bautista, it’ll probably be tough to deal him for much in return at this point so ride out the power wave and hope he doesn’t crash too badly by season’s end.
Brett Cecil – The Blue Jays’ young left hander faces off against the Twins today in Toronto in search of his 8th Win. After an impressive April and May (3.55 and 3.89 ERAs, respectively), Cecil struggled in June to the tune of a 5.34 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. However, Cecil’s overall numbers remain significantly better than his rookie season. He’s lowered his BB/9 from 3.66 to 2.72 and HR/9 from 1.64 to just 0.84 in 86 innings of work. Cecil’s also decreased his FIP from 5.37 to just 3.75 to go along with a 1.20 WHIP (compared to 1.65 in ’09). While Cecil is certainly benefiting from a 58-point drop in his BABIP, he’s also dealing with a 66% LOB% so his luck may be evening out. If you own Cecil, be aware that he could be shut down or limited in his innings during the second half as he only tossed 142 innings between AAA and the majors in ’09. All said, the 24-year old remains one of the better starting pitchers in any keeper league format.
Max Scherzer – The young Detroit right hander tossed a gem against the Orioles Wednesday, allowing just 1 ER and striking out 6 in 7 innings of work to pick up his 6th Win of the season. Scherzer continues to post dominant outings and has allowed just 3 ER in his past 27 2/3 innings while recording a 29/10 K/BB ratio during that span. For the season, Scherzer has an 8.52 K/9, 3.43 BB/9 and 1.38 WHIP. After struggling with the long ball early in 2010 (9 HRs allowed in his first 8 starts), Scherzer has allowed just 1 HR in his past 4 starts and lowered his HR/9 to 1.35. All of Scherzer’s key indicators, aside from the elevated HR rate, are in line with last season’s marks when he finished with a 3.87 FIP so it’s a good bet that the youngster will continue to lower his 4.61 ERA.
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