Matt Garza is among the biggest active Red Sox killers going (2-1, 2.74 in 6 starts vs. the Sox, in 42.2 IP last year) but the bear got him last night. Garza gave up 4 runs in 3 IP last night to the Sox, allowing 7 hits and 2 walks while striking out 1. Not a great start to July after an ugly June which saw him post a 6.83 ERA in 5 starts with a 1.55 WHIP. His OBA in June was .306, due in part to a .357 OBHIP% for the month … although it certainly didn’t last night, you can expect that to normalize a bit as we go forward.
There’s nothing particularly out of whack in Matt’s indicators, his velocity is normal and in fact he’s got hitters chasing outside of the zone nearly 2% more than his career rate, so all signs point to that unlucky recent BHIP% as being a main component of this little funk. (His BHIP% was .281 in April and .254 in May) … Cleveland is next on Sunday and that should be a good play even though the Tribe has gotten to him in the past, certainly more than the Sox have anyway. It is time however to check his probables each week. Matt is not an absolute “must start” at the moment.
Dice-K danced with the devil in the pale dome light a little bit too much last night and got burned allowing 5 runs, 4 earned in 5 IP against the Rays. He put 12 base runners on base last night on 8 hits and 4 walks and questionable defense (some his own) added at least two more. He fanned four.
Matsuzaka’s 1.43 WHIP on the year indicates a 4.30-4.40 ERA (His current ERA is 4.71) and he’s been a bit unlucky with his LOB% which sits at 65.7%. (In his 18-3 year in 2008 he benefitted from an 80% LOB% when his 1.32 WHIP indicated an ERA more than a whole run higher than his actual 2.90 ERA … a prime example of why you need to look beyond scoring stats to see the whole picture). In this case however it’s hard to bet on a rebound, and while his occasional impressive starts can be a big tease, you can bleed a lot in the chase of them. He’ll throw a gem here and there but he’s basically trick or treat. He’s worth a roster spot, but he should be in your reserves whenever practical.
Brandon Inge has heated up a bit, going 3- for -4 yesterday with a pair of doubles and 4 RBI. He’s on a 4-game hit streak where he’s 8- for - 16 with 4 doubles and 7 RBI. Brandon’s zone control is a little bit better this year (24.5% K rate and a 9.5% BB rate as opposed to 25.4%/8.0% career) but he’s also hitting .259 with a .319 BHIP% which explains his 22 point gain over his career AVG. Look for a return to mean in the second half.
Kevin Millwood got just 3 outs against the Tigers yesterday allowing 5 runs, all earned, on 5 hits and 2 walks against one strikeout. Baltimore manager Juan Samuel was trying to save his veteran by intimating that there is a physical problem, but Kevin never even came close to referring to an injury after the start.
Kevin’s BB and K rates are right in line with career averages, and he was working very close to a neutral 70% LOB% before last night. His OBA is up, .303 against a .264 career average but he’s battling an unfavorable .338 OBHIP%. In 2008 his OBHIP% was .366 and opponents hit .316 off of him and he went 9-10 with a 5.07 ERA. Last year it was a .279 BHIP%, a .258 OBA and a 3.67 ERA … Not a bad example of how BHIP% works. The other outlier is the 20 HRs he’s allowed this year, (none last night). His 15.0% HR/FB% is a bit unlucky compared to his 9.8% career %.
I don’t think he’s hurt, and I don’t think he’s pitching much worse than he normally does, but things aren’t falling his way either. He may actually get a bit better in the second half, but not much better. Kevin is basically a sub-.500 pitcher with the Orioles whose ERA is going to be closer to 5.00 than 4.75 in most data sets.
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