Tommy Hunter SP (TEX) - Hunter improved to 5-0 last night, but I have doubts about him moving forward. Entering the game he had a K/9 of 5.22 and K/BB ratio of 2.13 which is something you’d expect out of an extreme GB pitcher, not one who is somewhat FB risky like Hunter. His GB% is just 37.6%. However, his BABIP (which will be even lower after last taking into account last night’s start) is just .259, which is lucky for any pitcher but especially one with a LD% of 23.7%. Also, his 76.7 LOB% is not reflective of a low strikeout pitcher like Hunter. Perhaps most key to Hunter’s low ERA, though, is his unsustainably low HR/FB% of 2.8%. His career mark (27 starts) is 8.4%, and the league average is around 10%. That helps to explain why after his first 5 starts, Hunter’s xFIP of 4.67 was 2.5 runs higher than his actual ERA of 2.15. Hunter is going to experience some regression in the near future as his BABIP rises, LOB% lowers and HR/FB% rises.
Jake Fox DH (BAL) – Fox gets an uptick in playing time for Baltimore with Atkins have been sent down and Luke Scott landing on the DL. He posts okay power numbers because he puts the ball in the air a lot (44.3 career FB%) with a slightly above average (although maybe not for a DH) HR/FB%. So, he might be worth an add for those needing power in AL leagues. However, Fox’s career has never really taken off and a lack of patience may be to blame. At most of his professional stops, Fox has walked around 5% of the time, which is about half the major league average. He has not made up for it with an outstanding contact rate, leaving him with a career major league EYE of .27 that has curbed whatever power upside he possesses. Currently this season, he is chasing pitched outside of the zone a whopping 48.2% of the time.
Ricky Romero SP (TOR) – Romero was roughed up yesterday in Yankee stadium, allowing 8 ER in just 2.2 IP. I wouldn’t worry about Romero too much, though. His whopping GB% of 57.2% continues to grow and removes some risk out of the equation. And while Romero is not generating swings and misses as often as he did in the beginning of the season, hitters are chasing Romero’s pitches at a slightly higher clip than the league average. More importantly, hitters’ contact rates against Romero are well below league average when they chase pitches (by about 11 percentage points) and slightly below league average on pitches inside the strike zone. So, Romero’s K rate may keep him from being elite for now, but he is certainly a quality fantasy starter. He is even more valuable in keeper leagues, as in just his second season he has improved his K rate, BB rate and GB rate.
Andy Pettitte SP (NYY) – Pettitte is now 10 -2 with a 2.82 ERA after defeating the Blue Jays yesterday afternoon. I’ve said in this space before that Pettitte would slow down (so far he hasn’t), but I think he’s staved off regression long enough. If I were a Pettitte owner, I would sell high now. He currently has a .269 BABIP; here’s what his BABIP was from ’06-’09: .331/.323/.339/.301. Clearly his current number is an outlier thus far. Also, Pettitte is stranding 79.3% of his runners. That number is absurdly high for big strikeout pitchers, let alone a pitcher with a modest K rate like Pettitte’s. That number is 8 percentage points higher than his career mark, and his previous high of the past 3 seasons is just 70.7%. The BABIP will rise and the LOB% will drop, I assure you. Unfortunately for Pettitte owners, I believe the ride is coming to an end.
Torii Hunter OF (LAA) – Hunter continues to put up another solid, if unspectacular, season. I was never a big fan of Hunter, but he is a solid OF play in all options. There is definitely value in his year to year consistency as well. His career ISO is .198, and every year since 2003 (including this season) Hunter’s ISO has been within 15 points of that mark with the exception of 2007 when he had a .218 ISO. It’s the same story with Hunter’s HR/FB%: career mark of 15.9% with each year (including this season) within 2.5 percentage points of that mark. With that consistency in terms of his power and an EYE on the rise (.40/.46/.51/.62 from ’07-’10), Hunter (35) is staving off any possible age related regression. If anything, Hunter has become a safer bet in the batting average department this season as he is setting career highs in both EYE (.62) and LD% (20.7%).
