Evan Longoria 3B (TB) – Despite being in his third season and being in the peak of his career, Longoria is on pace for a career low in homers. He has just 14 through 95 games. However, I expect him to pick up the pace dramatically. His patience (11.8 BB%) and loft in his swing (42.3 FB%) are both right in line with his career marks and are actually slightly career highs. The only problem for Longoria is a low HR/FB% of 11.4%. The past two seasons that mark was 19.4% and 17.6%. There’s no reason to expect that number to fall like it has thus far at this point in Longoria’s career. With his patience and loft intact, look for Longoria to start getting a little luckier with fly balls going over the fence as his HR/FB% is likely to rise towards what it has been in the previous two seasons.
Delmon Young OF (MIN) – Young went 4-4 yesterday with a homer, and he has raised his average up to .325. Back at the beginning of June I checked into Young after reading our own Drew Dinkmeyer’s tweets regarding his breakout potential. In that blurb I wrote how the peripherals were there for Young (increased EYE, ISO, and FB%) for a breakout but were being masked by bad luck (low singles average, HR/FB%). Sure enough, Young has gone on a torrid hot streak as his singles average and HR/FB% have both normalized. His singles average and HR/FB% on June 6th were .204 and 8.9% respectively and now sit at .243 and 10.6%. With those numbers on the rise and his peripherals steady (career highs in ISO - .193, FB% - 36.7%, and EYE - .44), there’s no reason to expect Young to slow down. He’s especially valuable in auction keeper leagues where the 24 YO most likely went for a low bid.
Joe Mauer C (MIN) – With Mauer’s EYE in line with what it was last year (1.09 compared to 1.21) and his LD% and FB% both higher, there’s no reason to see the massive drop off in both average (from .365 to .295( and slugging (from .587 to .441). Basically Mauer is the same player this season just luck has gone a different way. Last season Mauer had a .329 singles average; this season it sits at .247. Last season Mauer had 20.4 HR/FB%; this season it is all the way down to 5.4%. Really, those numbers should be right around his career marks of .295 and 10.4%. Look for Mauer’s current numbers to climb towards his career numbers and maybe a little higher considering his age (27). That means a red hot final two months for Mauer owners in both the power and average categories.
Scott Feldman SP (TEX) – After having a breakout ’09, Feldman is struggling this season. The main reason for his struggles is a little reversal of luck and a decreased K/9 (from 5.36 to 4.85). Feldman’s inability to miss bats was on display last night as he failed to record a strikeout despite facing 23 Angel batters. Ironically, Feldman is getting batters to chase pitches as his outside swing percentage is a career high 31%. However, batters’ contact percentages both on pitches outside of the zone and inside of the zone are way up against Feldman. When batters chase against Feldman, they are still making contact 76.8% of the time, which is a career high and 5 percentage points higher than his career average. I think the key is Feldman’s fastball. Last season, Feldman threw his fastball 41.1% of the time at an average speed of 91.6 mph. This season he has thrown it only 34.7% of the time at an average speed of 90.5 mph. As a result, Feldman’s runs above average per 100 fastballs has dropped from -.62 to -1.79. This has affected his changeup as well as his runs above average per 100 changeups has dropped from -.58 to -2.39 despite being thrown at a similar frequency and speed as last year. Feldman needs to start throwing his fastball harder and more frequently, which should lead to more missed bats both with that pitch and his changeup.
Justin Masterson SP (CLE) – For a young pitcher, Masterson is pitching quite well. He has an okay 1.82 K/BB ratio, but that’s good enough when you consider his outstanding 63.4 GB% and just a 15.2 LD% allowed. However, the fantasy gods have been unkind to Masterson as he sports 5.25 ERA. Both his FIP (3.98) and xFIP (3.98) suggest that that should be a lot lower. The problem has been bad luck. Masterson’s BABIP of 3.52 is 40 points above his career mark, and his 65.4 LOB% is 5.3 percentage points below his career mark. With the way Masterson is pitching, if anything he should be beating those career averages. So, as Masterson’s BABIP and LOB% normalize, we could see quite a dip in his ERA.
