Michael Cuddyer:
I recently fielded a question on twitter (now seems like a good time to self-promote if you haven’t been following me on Twitter why not? Free and timely baseball information and I’ll take questions via twitter and respond! Interactive fantasy advice http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) about Cuddyer’s value for the rest of the season so I figured I’d touch on him in a blurb. It’s been a dissapointing season for Cuddyer coming off what very well may be a career year in 2009. His ISO has dropped nearly 100 points down to .152 and the usually consistent run producer has driven in just 36 RBI’s this year and knocked out 7 HR’s. He’s shown some mild improvements in his EYE, largely driven by a bump in his Contact Rate. With more balls in play you’d expect a boost in batting average, but the big dip in power and some moderately poor luck on balls in play (.287 BABIP) has limited Cuddyer to just a .263 avg. The root of the problem is an increased chase rate that has left Cuddyer making a larger percentage of his contact on balls outside the zone. The good news here is perhaps with some improved discipline (something closer to his normal rates) should lead to a spike in power and help Cuddyer get back to his usual 85-17-85 (R-HR-RBI) type production. With Cuddyer having now started 12 games at 3B he’s likely gained eligibility in most formats at 3B as well as 1B and OF, the added flexibility is worth noting as it gives him some extra “hidden” value. While Cuddyer’s not going to be a star or come anywhere close to replicating his 2009 season, I think he’s a nice rebound candidate for a strong 2nd half. Throw in the added positional eligibility and I think he’s a nice add or trade target for fantasy owners looking to improve the depth of their lineup.
Matt Wieters:
There are some small sample size caveats here but over the last 11 games we’ve seen some noteworthy improvements from Wieters. He’s walked 8 times and struck out just 4 while going 11-33 with 3 XBH’s. For the season Wieters peripherals are similar to last year’s rookie campaign but with a lot more GB’s and a lot less luck. His EYE is basically the same, showing a mild improvement, but his power is down largely because he’s hitting more GB’s and less FB’s and LD’s (which has also negatively impacted his BABIP). Although the sample is small, there’s some reason for hope for Wieters owners. With a friendly upcoming schedule this week those in shallow leagues (10 team, 1 catcher) looking to plug in a waiver wire catcher for a Victor Martinez injury may want to look in Wieters direction. There are small signs that things are starting to come together for the 2nd year future star.
Michael Brantley:
Brantley got his first start on Sunday afternoon since being recalled and was promptly insered at the top of the lineup. Brantley’s got the prototypical skill set for a leadoff hitter as he makes great contact and draws walks, posting a .387 career minor league OBP and a .358 OBP last season in the majors. He went 0-4 on Sunday and struggled in limited AB’s to start the season but went back down to AAA and hit .315/.390/.407 in 241 AB’s. With Shin Soo Choo out for 6-8 weeks, Brantley should get a long look in CF for the Indians and likely a long look in the leadoff spot. With a career 1.32 EYE at the minor league level and good contact rates last year at the big league level a .290 BA with solid Runs scored and good SB potential (160 minor league SB’s in 5 years). In AL Only leagues he needs to be owned and in deep mixed leagues he’s worth a look for those looking for SB potential.
Brandon Morrow:
Morrow deserved a better fate on Sunday, not only from his defense behind him but from the official scorer in New York. Grinding through a tough Yankees lineup, Morrow was on the verge of completing a 6 inning 3 ER quality start and leaving the game in line to potentially earn a W. With 2 outs he induced a lazy fly ball to CF DeWayne Wise that looked to end the inning. Wise lost the ball at the last minute in the sun and dropped the fly ball with the ball actually deflecting off the glove. Gardner, hustling out of the box, rounded the bases and the Yankees official scorer decided it was worth granting Gardner an inside-the-park HR. Instead of finishing with a 6 IP 8 H, 1BB, 3 ER, 6 K line that would have been acceptable against the Yanks, Morrow was tagged with another H and 2 ER’s as a result of the decision. I’ve never seen an official scorer give a hit on a dropped fly ball that an OF gets a glove on while camped underneath it but that was the ruling. As for Morrow, he continues to show improved command as Sunday’s outing marked the 7th consecutive start in which he allowed 3 or fewer BB’s and the 5th time in those 7 he’s walked 2 or less. Some poor luck on balls in play and the shaky control early in the season are masking a dominant starter. Morrow entered Sunday’s outing with a 3.45 FIP and has the highest K/9 of any American League starter. He should be owned in all leagues and is a nice buy-low candidate.
John Lackey:
Perhaps there are some signs of life for Lackey. He notched his 5th quality start in his last 6 outings, allowing just 3 ER’s on 8 hits and 1 bb over 7 1/3 innings. Perhaps most encouraging is the fact that Lackey struck out 7 in the contest and has now struck out 22 in his last 27 innings, while walking just 5 in that span. Lackey’s batted ball data is all largely the same this year and his struggles have simply been the result of a deterioration in his K:BB Rate. With that improving over the last few outings there appears to be hope that Lackey has turned the corner. Even if he can maintain the improved K and BB Rates the ballpark switch will limit Lackey’s upside to #3 fantasy SP, but given Lackey’s been a net negative to fantasy owners this year having any fantasy value going forward would be considered a rise in value. There’s still risk here given the larger sample size this year, but the trend is improving and certainly worth pointing out.
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