Casey Kelly - Starting Pitcher Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox 2008 first round pick wanted to explore his two-way capabilities for a while, but finally arrived at the conclusion himself this past winter that his future was on the mound.
Casey hasn't developed a lot of velocity on his fastball yet. He's hitting 93-94 on occasion, which is just a tick up from his top-end velocity when he turned pro. He's more often working in the low 90s, but at 6-3, 195, there's still room and time (he won't be 21 until the end of the season) for some physical maturity.
Casey has a very good power curve and the Sox are in the process of trying to install a change up and that pitch has been very impressive so far. Casey pounds the strike zone and attacks hitters and he's stingy with his walks. All three pitches have plus potential and he can also impart a couple of different forms of movement on his fastball, which helps him fool hitters. His ability to mix things us also delays our concern about his overall velocity. As long as he fools hitters we won't worry about it.
You can also delay worry about his 2010 stat line. His 5/31 start against New Britain (4 IP, 10 Hits, 6 ER and a K) bloated his numbers. He had actually coughed up two shaky starts in his last 4 but tossed 6 scoreless against Reading on 6/5. That was his longest outing of the year as the Red Sox continue to stretch him out.
Because of his velocity limits, and the fact he's not yet stretch out completely, I am going to be cautious in his grading for now. Casey looks like a good #3 in the making right now, but a couple of mph on his fastball could make a big difference. We'll check back in with Casey in August
Long Term Fantasy Grade - B-
Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP 2009 A 6 1 1.12 48.1 7.3 1.7 0.0 .190 0.85 2009 A+ 1 4 3.09 46.2 6.9 1.5 0.4 .190 0.85 2010 AA 0 3 5.30 37.1 7.8 1.6 0.7 .305 1.66
Kyle Drabek - Starting Pitcher Philadelphia Philles
Right-hander Kyle Drabek, the Phillies 1st round pick in 2006 (18th overall), is indeed the son of Pirates and Astros star, and 1990 Cy Young Award Winner, Doug Drabek. He ended up in Manchester NH this year after the dust settled in the offseason shuffling of Roy Halladay.
Kyle may be one pitcher who actually benefited from Tommy John surgery. The Phillies installed a couple of changes into his mechanics while he worked back from the surgery in 2008 and the combined result was a significant jump in his progression. It is also said that Kyle matured emotionally quite a bit during his rehab, and that was an equal contributor to his breakout in 2009.
Kyle can hit 95 with his plus fastball and cruises in the low 90s. He follows that with a curveball which is absolutely great at times but it lacks consistency, although Kyle appears to be nailing down his motion. Drabek's change is improving as well but still needs work. All three pitches are workable however and project to be MLB-viable by the time he's ready.
AA has been a bit of a struggle so far for Kyle, even in this his second tour. But 9 of his 23 earned runs allowed came in two starts this year and he's posted 6 starts allowing 2 runs or less this season, all coming in his last 8 starts, after allowing 3 runs in each of his three starts. Other than a little bloating from a couple of bad starts, what you see if what you get. His indicators are lining up with his results so far.
I have thought Kyle was a bit over-hyped prior to the two rounds of talks about Halladay in 2009. Seeing him with the Fischer Cats this year hasn't changed my mind. I wrote last year that he looks to me like a #3 starter and his move to the AL East hasn't upped his value any in my mind.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - C+
Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP 2006 R 1 3 7.71 23.1 5.4 4.2 0.8 .334 1.89 2007 A 5 1 4.33 54.0 7.7 3.8 1.5 .247 1.35 2008 R 0 1 2.25 12.0 4.5 4.5 0.0 .151 1.00 2008 A- 1 2 2.21 20.1 4.4 2.7 0.4 .161 0.84 2009 A+ 4 1 2.48 61.2 10.8 2.8 0.0 .220 1.10 2009 AA 8 2 3.68 99.0 6.8 2.8 0.8 .251 1.24 2010 AA 7 4 3.98 70.1 7.4 3.4 0.6 .240 1.25
