Stephen Strasburg:
Strasburg made his final minor league start on Thursday, throwing another 5 shutout innings and lowering his minor league ERA to 1.30 and 0.80 WHIP in 11 starts. He posted a tremendous 65/13 K:BB Rate over his 55 1/3 innings. One of my favorite comparisons for Strasburg in terms of coming up with major league expectations is Mark Prior. In Prior’s 51 innings before being promoted he struck out 79, walked 18 posting a 2.29 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Comparing the two we see Prior had a bit better K Rate but struggled a bit more with opposing hitters squaring him up. Prior went on to post a 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 147 K’s in 116 2/3 IP. While Strasburg won’t be asked to pitch that much (he’ll be limited closer to 100 IP), I think the ratios comparison suggests Strasburg should be able to immediately step in as a #2 fantasy starter.
Carlos Lee:
El Caballo homered for the 2nd consecutive game this time in walkoff fashion. He now has 7 HR’s in his last 106 AB’s and is beginning to show some signs of life. Is he all the way back to a .300-25-100 OF? I’m not sure. Lee’s seen real deterioration in his skills this season as his EYE has fallen apart as has his power. Both have shown signs of improvement over the last month but they remain depressed over his usual rates. I think the slight deterioration is real for the soon-to-be 34 year old and would temper expectations back towards a .275-.280, 20 HR, 80 RBI pace the rest of the season.
Matt Capps:
It was a tough early week trip through Houston for Matt Capps as he picked up 2 blown saves without allowing an earned run. On Thursday he was hurt by a 2 out error by RF Christian Guzman, which resulted in his 3rd blown save in his last 5 outings. The recent struggles might lead to speculation over Capps job security, but I think he’s in fine standing. His peripherals have been fine in those 5 outings, 3:1 K:BB Ratio in 3 1/3 innings, but he’s been very hittable; surrendering 12 hits in those 3 1/3 innings. This was a problem for Capps last year as his BABIP hovered around .370 most of the year and certainly is a concern. His 22% LD Rate is up from last year as is his GB Rate (up to 44%), which are behind the elevated BABIP. Along with those increases we’ve seen improved K:BB Rates and the fewer FB’s has lead to fewer HR’s, all of which are the reasons behind Capps early season success. With the K:BB maintaining and the GB’s still coming even in these recent struggles, I feel confident that Capps will get back to some of the early season success we saw.
Josh Johnson:
Pitching in the NL isn’t easy these days when you’re challenging Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, and Ubaldo Jimenez for notoriety, but Josh Johnson is quietly on a remarkable run. He lost his last outing despite giving up just an unearned run thanks to Roya Halladay’s perfect game. Thursday night marked his 10th consecutive quality start as he limited the Brewers to 1 ER over 7 innings, striking out 8 and walking 3. It was the first earned run he had allowed in his last 3 starts and lowered his ERA down to 2.10. He’s shown growth in his K Rate this year while maintaining a tremendous GB Rate (48%) and solid BB Rate (2.70 BB/9). He remains an elite starter even if he’s not getting the attention he deserves over while pitching in FLA. He’s all set for another rematch with Roy Halladay, this time in PHI, next week.
Carlos Zambrano:
Zambrano’s return to the rotation will come a few days later than anticipated but will come against the team he previously no-hit, the Houston Astros. Although Zambrano was battered earlier in the year as a starter his peripherals actually looked to be taking a step forward. His K Rate jumped significantly (over 10 K/9) and his BB Rate had come back down below 4. His GB Rate remained steady (about 45%) as did his velocity (91 mph FB). His LD Rate was way up (23%) as was his HR Rate indicating he was struggling with location within the zone. Some minor improvements in command could result in significant improvements in results. A .400 BABIP. 16% HR/FB Rate, and 68% LOB% scream regression. While he won’t be an ace the rest of the way, Zambrano looks like a solid bet to get back to his usual levels of production (mid-to-high 3’s ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8 K/9).
There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning, members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here link:www.fantistics.com/baseball00/. Not a member? Join today link:www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3
Also if you're interested in daily updates and analysis from my vantage point. Follow me all season long on Twitter at http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
