Matt Cain:
Paul has been all over Matt Cain as a risk due to the high pitch counts and whether Thursday’s outing was due to some fatigue or quite simply some unsustainable peripherals (.238 BABIP, 80% LOB%) that came into play Cain was just awful. He allowed 7 ER’s on 8 hits and 2 BB’s while recording just 8 outs against the woeful Astros lineup. Cain’s K Rate is down for the third straight year, but he’s traded a few less K’s for a few less BB’s, which overall is a fine trade. The real problem with Cain’s peripherals is a big rise in his FB Rate (approaching 50%). It hadn’t come back to haunt him yet as he entered Thursday’s game with a sub 4% HR/FB Rate but after surrendering 2 HR’s on Thursday we got a glimpse of how painful regression can be. Cain was able to out-perform his FIP by over 1 full run last year posting a sub-3 ERA and was doing so again this season (FIP – 3.38 entering Thursday), but has seen the ERA rise to 2.72 after the poor outing. Cain’s more likely to see his ERA in the mid 3’s than the mid 2’s when its all said and done. There’s still some further regression to go.
Jason Castro:
Castro wrapped up a pretty good first series at the big league level with a 2-3 effort that included his first major league HR. He’s now 3-10 on the season with 2 BB’s and 2 K’s, not bad for a series that had him lined up against Lincecum, Zito, and Cain. Schuyler touched on some of the struggles Castro had at the minor league level early this year which indicate he’ll have some struggles at the big league level. He did post a solid .826 OPS last season and has shown tremendous command of the strike zone in his minor league career (0.77 EYE), but he’s had just 500 AB’s above A ball and posted a sub-.750 OPS in those AB’s. He is a top prospect and has some solid long-term upside, but it will take a dramatic growth in his bat to make an impact this season.
Gaby Sanchez:
With all the focus on when Logan Morrison is going to replace Gaby Sanchez it seems like we’ve overlooked just how solid the 26 year old is. Sanchez has shown very solid command of the strike zone (.63 EYE, 1.00 EYE at minor league level) and has really bumped up his power here in June. He went 3-3 again on Thursday and is now hitting .395 in June and 17-36 over his last 8 games. His EYE in June (1.00) is in line with his minor league career where he posted a .302/.395/.485 line. The biggest knock on Sanchez is he doesn’t have elite power but with 27 XBH’s in 280 PA’s, Sanchez has enough power to be an above average bat at this level. He’s on pace for a .300-83-18-76 making him a nice CI or U option in traditional mixed formats and a red-hot hitter those in shallow leagues may want to pay attention to.
Mike Stanton:
With another 2 K’s in an 0-4 effort on Thursday we’re now up to a whopping 24 K’s in 55 AB’s for Mike Stanton. I’ve tried to temper fantasy owners expectations for the 20 year old as its hard for ANYONE to contribute with a K Rate north of 40%. His big time power has already resulted in 9 Runs and 9 RBI’s in his first 14 games, but he’s only managed the 1 HR and the .218 BA is hard to swallow, especially when it comes with a .321 BHIP% that sugest he’s maybe had some “good” luck on balls in play. The ride is going to be a wild one for the youngster and there will be moments this season that make his owners feel extremely rewarded, but I think the overall package might leave owners feeling a bit unsatisfied. A run at 50 Runs and 50 RBI’s seems plausible along with 12-15 HR’s but it will come with a sub .240 batting average that owners will have to make sure they can handle.
Aramis Ramirez:
Ramirez is scheduled to return to the Cubs lineup sometime this weekend as he continues to try to recover from a thumb injury that he’s dealt with most of the season. Ramirez wasn’t activated immediately because the Cubs didn’t like what they saw in a batting practice session and Ramirez has indicated the thumb issue is likely to stay with him all season. The production has been horrific this season from Ramirez but if its possible the peripherals are even worse. Ramirez’s K Rate is way up, his LD Rate is way down, as are his power indicators. I don’t know what to make of Ramirez as he looks like a completely different player than I’ve ever seen. His bat speed is noticably slower and even on his rehab assignment he struck out twice in 6 AB’s at low-A Peoria. Sure there’s a chance he rebounds this year, but there’s nothing from what I’ve seen with my eyes or in the data that suggests he will. I’ll let someone else have the risk.
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Fantasy baseball
Jun 24, 10 at 09:48 PM
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