Ubaldo Jimenez:
I tweeted earlier this week that I thought Jimenez may be on the verge of hitting a rough patch (rough is a very relative term for Ubaldo). We’ve touched on some of the early season abuse Jimenez has suffered at the hands of Jim Tracy (topping 120 pitches 4 times, averaging 111 pitches/start) and pondered how that would effect him long-term. Here in June, we’ve seen some deterioration in his peripherals as his K Rate is down a touch (7.71 K/9) and his BB Rate is up a full BB/9 to 4.28. He’s still rolling a ton of ground balls which can always help limit the damage (prevents XBH’s, induces DPs) and that was the story again on Thursday. Despite allowing 10 base-runners in 8 innings, Jimenez limited the Twins to just 1 ER, thanks to 4 double plays (3 GBs, 1 LD). A couple GB’s find a hole and we’re looking at a different line. It’s hard to even consider moving Jimenez given he’s been far and away the most valuable fantasy player in fantasy baseball, but owners may want to consider throwing out some “blow-away” type offers where you get two elite players for Jimenez. It’s unlikely he’ll fall off a cliff as his stuff and his ability to generate GBs is amongst the best in baseball, but it is somewhat likely he’s a lot closer to the top group of pitchers from here on out than he has been to date. Given how high we were on Jimenez coming into the year, I own him in most of my leagues and I’m considering floating out some offers for lesser thought of aces (Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano) + another big name hitter to see if I can net two great players for 1. I would suggest you consider doing the same.
John Ely:
Since I was the first to touch on Ely as an interesting flier option back at the beginning of May I should probably be the first to let owners know the clock appears to have struck midnight for Cinderella. After posting a tremendous 28:3 K:BB ratio in 33 May innings, Ely’s K:BB Ratio has sunk to just 12:10 in 21 2/3 June innings. Ely’s repertoire was more based on deception that stuff as the majority of swings and misses were taking place outside the zone (88% contact rate inside the zone). It appears as the scouting reports have gotten around and hitters have become more comfortable Ely’s generating less chases. When forced to come in the zone he is very ordinary stuff is now getting hit around very hard, as evidenced by the 6 HR’s allowed in June (none previously). In NL Only leagues I might hold out hope and look for him as a matchups play, but in mixed leagues its time to move on from Ely’s strong start.
Garrett Jones:
I’ve noted Jones is a notorious streak hitter and he’s quietly on a tear again. He extended his hitting streak to 9 games on Thursday and has picked up 6 extra base hits and 7 RBI’s during that span. Jones hasn’t been able to replicate the immense power he displayed in his rookie campaign last year (.274 ISO) but that was probably unrealistic anyway (AAA ISOs of .192/.193/.205/.195 prev 4 years). This year he’s settled back in around that AAA base that was established (.189 ISO) and is on pace for a 25 HR campaign. We thought he’d get to 30 this season and with a couple sustained hot streaks he could get there, but it’s looking more like .280-25-90 instead of .280-30-80. Either way it’ll be similar value to the preseason projection. Owners in shallow leagues may want to take a look and see if Jones is available as he’s a great guy to rotate in when hot, as he is right now.
R.A. Dickey:
Dickey made it 5-6 in quality starts and improved his record to 5-0 with 6 strong innings against the Indians. He walked just 2 and struck out 7 while yielding 7 hits and 2 ER’s. Dickey’s shown vastly improved command of his knuckleball this year and its resulted in more GB’s, fewer BB’s, more swings outside the strike zone, and a higher K Rate. Those are all very legitimate improvements and are somewhat supportive of the strong start. He has had his fair share of good fortune specifically in his 83% LOB%, but his xFIP has dipped down into the mid 3’s. His long history of poor pitching makes it hard to come around on Dickey, especially since the strong start has been supported by a favorable schedule (WAS, PHI, MIL, BAL, FLA, CLE), but the peripherals are showing improvements across the board and perhaps its time to jump in.
Ricky Nolasco:
Nolasco bounced back from some poor outings but still fell to 5-6 after giving up 4 runs (2 earned) in 6 innings against the Rangers. He gave up 7 hits and walked just 1, but was only able to strike out 4. The declining strike out rate has been the big issue for Nolasco as his command remains tremendous and his batted ball data is generally the same (traded some LD’s for a few more FB’s). He’s struck out more than 4 in a game just once since the end of April and his stuff in the zone just isn’t generating whiffs (82.5% contact rate). Until the K’s come back Nolasco’s going to be very dependent on balls in play and with his high FB Rate runs can compound in a hurry thanks to a flurry of XBH’s. For mixed leaguers I’d still hold onto him in anything deeper than 8 teams because the upside in the past has been significant, but I’d try to pick my spots with him and limit it to pitching against bad offenses in big parks. Next week’s matchup in Baltimore is probably one I’d avoid at this point.
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