Jhoulys Chacin:
Chacin lost for the 3rd straight time and 5th time in his last 6 starts on Thursday as he allowed 4 hits, 3 BB’s, and 4 ER’s over 6 innings against the Astros. Chacin continues to rack up the strikeouts as he notched another 8 on Thursday against 3 BB’s, but the high pitch counts have limited his ability to work deep into games as he’s lasted on average just 6 innings a start and hasn’t topped 6 innings since May 8th. While the K’s are intriguing I’ve always been concerned by the command and although Chacin has shown decent improvements (3.86 BB/9), the wildness is still hurting him. A first strike % in the low 50%’s has him working from behind and leaving balls out over the plate as indicated by a 23% LD Rate. The K’s will continue to be there but I have my doubts over the ratio performance and ultimately whether he’ll be additive in mixed formats. I’ve got him stashed on some 12 team formats and think he’s worthy of a look, but similar to Brian Matusz in the AL, I want to see it translate to performance before I get him in my active lineup.
Luke Gregerson:
It’s time owners started realizing the benefits of rostering and activating Luke Gregerson in all formats. With another scoreless inning on Thursday, Gregerson has now posted 27 scoreless apperances in 29 outings and has not allowed a base-runner in 20 of those appearances. His 0.43 WHIP and 1.39 ERA while averaging a little over 3 1/3 innings a week. His awesome 10.85 K/9 and ridiculous 39:2 K:BB Ratio leads to an average weekly performance of 3 1/3 innings 4 K’s, 1 base-runner, and 0.5 ER’s. A good outing from a 1 start pitcher is probably something around 6 IP, 6 base-runners, 2 ER’s and 6 K’s. While the W potential may not be there and you’ll lose out on some K’s over the course of the year, sliding in a guy like Gregerson when your pitchers don’t have favorable matchups is a savvy way for an owner to smooth their ratios over the course of the season. I think he should be owned in almost all formats and deployed liberally.
Mat Latos:
One of my favorite preseason sleepers Mat Latos was tremendous again on Thursday; out-dueling Johan Santana and limiting the Mets to just 2 ER’s on 3 base-runners over 6 innings. He walked just 1 while striking out 8. He’s shown great peripherals this season (K/9 approaching 8, GB Rate of 48%, and BB/9 of 2.5) and there’s no sign of slowing down. He’ll get TOR in his next start at home and is now a must start option everywhere. The one area of concern for Latos owners in head-to-head formats is the innings limit. Coming into the season the Padres had targeted 150 innings for Latos and after Thursday’s start he’s now crept up over 70. At this pace, he’d reach the innings limit in late August. Perhaps with the Padres in contention, the limit may get relaxed, but owners in head-to-head formats who are off to a good start may want to consider selling Latos before the innings limit starts getting mentioned more often. It would appear extremely unlikely that he’ll be able to help come playoff time.
Mike Leake:
It’s a thin line for a guy that relies as heavily on command as Mike Leake does and on Thursday when the command was just a bit off, Leake’s results suffered mightily. He was lit up for 11 base hits and 4 BB’s in just 4 1/3 innings of work. Fortunately for Leake a couple double plays limited the damage to just 5 ER’s. Leake entered the game with a .281 BABIP and 81% LOB% that were both due for some regression. The outing on Thursday raised his ERA to 2.68 which is still ¾ of a run below his FIP. I’ve indicated I thought Leake’s great command and 52% GB Rate might be able to help him out-pitch his peripherals in a way that Greg Maddux and Jamie Moyer have been able to throughout their career and I maintain that belief. The outing was just his 2nd non-quality start of the year and his first since April 22nd. He remains a solid mid-rotation starter in all formats. Thursday was just a blip on the radar screen and some normal regression.
Alfonso Soriano:
After a monstrous May, Soriano has cooled off here in June going just 2-19. The good news for Soriano owners is the EYE has actually been quite good during the slump (1.00) and he’s only struck out 4 times. I was really down on Soriano coming into the season as I thought last year’s decline was a sign of skills deterioration, but he’s rebounded quite nicely this year. His BB% is at a career high and the power has returned. He’s actually posting a better hitting year (.382 wOBA) so far than his monstrous 40-40 campaign with the Nationals when he posted a .377 wOBA. He’s increased his BB Rate, his FB Rate, and his LD Rate. While my concerns over playing time and SB potential were legitimate the concerns over skills deterioration weren’t relevant at all. Soriano’s posting arguably the best skills of his career at age 34.
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