Felix Hernandez – The Seattle right hander will try to build off his recent string of strong performances when he faces the Yankees in New York today. Hernandez has worked at least 8 innings and allowed 2 runs or fewer in 5 of his past 6 starts to lower his season FIP and ERA to 3.37 and 3.28, respectively. After posting an ERA under 3.00 in April, Hernandez struggled a bit in May, allowing opposing hitters to record an .834 OPS against him while also tallying just a 2.13 K/BB ratio. However, in June, Hernandez has lowered his monthly ERA to just 2.88 and is enjoying an excellent K/BB of 5.71 while holding hitters to a comical .483 OPS. For the season, Hernandez’s key indicators (ex: K/9, BB/9, HR/9) are almost identical to 2009 when he finished 19-5 with a 3.09 FIP. He’s also not getting particularly lucky or catching bad breaks as his LOB%, BABIP and GB% are all almost similar to last season’s numbers. Hernandez draws a tough matchup today but, moving forward, he should have no problem remaining one of the best fantasy SP in any league format.
Aaron Laffey – One of a long list of distinguished soft-tossing lefties to recently pitch in Cleveland, Aaron Laffey will make his second straight start in the Tribe’s rotation today, drawing the Blue Jays in Cleveland. Laffey has always struggled with his ability to strike out batters and limit walks at the big league level. For his career, Laffey has just a 1.23 K/BB in 294 innings to go along with a 4.48 FIP. While it’s an extremely small sample size, in his 29 innings this season (1 start, 20 relief appearances), Laffey has posted a 16/16 K/BB mark so he’s been worse than his career norms so far in 2010. Laffey does do a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (career 0.67 HR/9) and has been unlucky this season (61% LOB%, 52% GB%, FIP more than 2 runs below ERA). Still, he has no use in any fantasy league format until he improves his K/BB. While his minor league track record shows an acceptable 6.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9, he still needs to prove those numbers will translate against MLB hitters.
Phil Hughes – The Yankees’ right hander labored through 5 2/3 innings against the light-hitting Mariners Tuesday evening, allowing 6 ER on 10 Hits while walking 2 and striking out 3 en route to taking the loss. This start continued a trend for Hughes as he’s steadily regressed since a sizzling start to the season. Don’t get me wrong, Hughes is still pitching very well overall, but he’s now moving toward his true ability rather than the guy who held opponents to a .402 OPS in April. Hughes has recorded an excellent 8.53 K/9, 2.73 BB/9 and 0.77 HR/9 through his first 82 innings entering Tuesday’s start while also posting a FIP of just 3.25. While a low GB% (34%) may cause some fantasy owners pause (especially pitching in the new Yankees’ Stadium), the rest of Hughes’ indicators all point toward him remaining a very solid No. 2/3 starter in any fantasy baseball league format.
James Shields – The big right hander cruised through four innings Tuesday against a depleted Red Sox lineup but fell victim to a fat fastball right down the middle to David Ortiz who subsequently deposited the pitch into the right centerfield stands for a 3-run HR in the 5th inning. Shields came back out in the 6th and hit a batter then allowed back-to-back sharp singles before being pulled. His final line read: 5 ER, 7 Hits, 6 Ks in 5 innings. Prior to Tuesday’s start, Shields had been experiencing a bit of bad luck as his FIP was a respectable 4.07 compared to an ERA on the north side of 4.50. However, Shields hasn’t helped himself much either by allowing an unsightly 1.45 HR/9 which is 0.26 above his career mark of 1.19. The good news for Shields’ owners is his K/9 is the highest of his career at 8.36 and his BB/9 is just 2.00. Assuming Shields can lower his HR rate, he remains a solid No. 3 starter in most fantasy league formats.
Nick Swisher – The Yankees’ outfielder was the only player that could hit Cliff Lee for much of Tuesday night as Swisher delivered 2 HRs off the Mariners’ ace and finished the game 2-for-4 with 2 RBI. Swisher is certainly having an excellent season with 13 HRs and an .889 OPS . However, be aware that Swisher’s ISO has actually dropped from .249 in ’09 to .205 in ’10 and he’s enjoying a BABIP that’s 67 points above his '09 posting of .272. Despite enjoying such fortune, Swisher’s OPS is just 20 points above last season’s .869 mark. Swisher’s also walking in fewer plate appearances (10% in ’10/16% in ’09) and has an unsustainable BA of .289 thanks to that high BABIP. All said, Swisher is going to remain a productive fantasy hitter but don’t expect him to keep up his current pace.
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