Miguel Tejada- BAL- Hot- With a BHIPx of .234, some regression to the mean is expected for Tejada. Yesterday might have been the beginning of that. He went 3-for-4 against the Yankees with 2 doubles and a run scored. Since hitting 4 homers in April, Tejada has been punchless. He has no homers and only 7 extra base hits (including yesterday’s doubles) in 128 PAs since May started. Tejada’s average may start to rebound, but unless the pair of doubles is a precursor to more power, his fantasy value is limited, particularly at a corner infield spot.
Armando Galarraga- DET- Hot- The bottom line on last night is that Galarraga was robbed of a place in baseball history by a bad call. That being said, what about his potential of maintaining his success since being called up? Early indications are not favorable. Sure, it’s a small sample size of 21 IP, but Galarraga’s 2.57 ERA is impacted favorably by luck (.186 BABIP) and a level of control (1.71 BB/9) that he hasn’t shown anywhere before. His K/9 of 4.71 continues a decline since his rookie season. Last night was the peak of Galarraga’s season.
B. J. Upton- TB- Cold- Upton’s .184 BHIPx is certainly a major factor in his .225 average. Still, when regression to the mean occurs, it’s not going to do that much. Upton has had two decent seasons in his career from a batting average perspective, in 2007 when he hit .300 and in 2008 when he hit .273. The 2007 mark was luck driven, as Upton finished the year with a .341 BHIPx. In 2008, he had uncharacteristically good command of the strike zone, evidenced by a .72 Batting EYE. This year, he hasn’t had the luck and with a .41 Batting EYE, he is not going to help himself as he did two years ago.
Jose Bautista- TOR- Stats- With a BHIPx of .152, Bautista’s .247 average has been kept down by extreme bad luck. This has prevented his improved Batting EYE of .78 from being reflected in his batting average. While regression to the mean on his extreme FB% and HR/FB ratio will result in a drop in power from the ridiculous 16 homers in 230 PAs he has so far, it will also bring his batting average up. This will make Bautista still have considerable fantasy value.
Elvis Andrus- TEX- Hot- Yeah, the .351 BHIPX plays a big role in Andrus’ .307 average, but he added 2 walks last night and has drawn 3 over his past 2 games, while he has gone just 2-for-9 at the plate. Andrus seems to find a way to get on base, where he will provide you with steals. Regression to the mean will have little negative impact on that part of his game.
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