David Ortiz DH (BOS) – After a tough April, I really thought Ortiz was done, particularly since he fared so terribly on fastballs, and it seemed like opposing pitchers knew it. Clearly, I was wrong and Ortiz was not done, as he continues to tear the cover off of the ball. Ortiz homered for the second straight night and now has drawn 7 walks in the last 3 games with 0 strikeouts. The key for Ortiz: he’s starting to hit the fastball again. On May 2nd, Ortiz was rated as being -1.43 runs above average per 100 pitches on at bats ending in a fastball. That number has done a 180, and Ortiz is now 1.52 runs above average per 100 fastballs. It’s not just a numbers thing either, as advance scouts must be noticing Ortiz’s renewed ability to turn on the heater as well. On May 2nd, opposing pitchers were giving Ortiz the heat 63.3% of the time; since then, that number has dropped 3 total percentage points.
Matt Wieters C (BAL) – Another night, another 0-for for Matt Wieters, and his average has dipped all the way down to .226. After posting above average BB rates and ISO’s in the minors, that blend of power and patience has not followed Wieters to the big show. In 621 career plate appearances, Wieters has walked 7.4% of the time, 7.3% in ’09 and 7.6% this season. Meanwhile his career ISO is .116, and even more disturbingly is it has declined this season: .124/.101. I can’t explain the lack of patience, but the lack of power (on top of being correlated with a lack of patience) comes from Wieters beating the ball into the ground way too often. He has a 47.9% GB%. Also, two seasons in a row, Wieters has posted subpar HR/FB%’s: 8.4/8.3. While often the initial performance does not justify the hype, that’s okay, but it is certainly discouraging for Wieters owners (particularly in keeper formats) to see zero improvements in any of his peripheral numbers.
Armando Galarraga SP (DET) – Galarraga had a subpar outing last night, giving up 4 ER without making it out of the 5th inning. We should expect a few more of those out of Galarraga in the future. He entered play last night with unsustainable BABIP and LOB%. His BABIP was very low at .233 (35 points below his career average), and his LOB% was 77.1% (4.1 percentage points above his career average). When regression hits Galarraga, it could really mess up his statistics because his well below average K/9 of 3.55 (career mark of 5.90) means he allows a lot of balls into play. His ERA should move towards his FIP and xFIP marks of 4.76 and 5.03.
Gavin Floyd SP (CHW) – Hopefully you stuck it out with Floyd. He’s been on fire lately as some of his luck factors (BABIP and LOB% specifically) correct themselves. We’ve stated in this space before that Floyd was due for some positive regression, and it has come in the form of three straight starts of just 1 ER. Next up for Floyd on the checklist is to start getting some luck in terms of victories, because despite the three straight great starts, Floyd has not won a game since May 22nd. He should be a solid fantasy contributor the rest of the season. The 27 YO Floyd is setting career highs in K/9 and GB% for the second straight season (6.32/7.60/7.92 and 41.2%/44.3/48.1 respectively).
Magglio Ordonez OF (DET) – Ordonez seems like he is staving off decline right now with his amazing plate discipline. Last year, there were warning signs with Ordonez as his GB% elevated and in turn led to a significant drop in his ISO. This year, though, Ordonez has a whopping 1.43 EYE. As a result of him seeing the ball so well, both his LD% and FB% have increased over last year’s numbers. In turn, his ISO has returned to a normal level for Ordonez at .177, and it’s allowing Ordonez to have an impact on the fantasy world once again. While I do expect Ordonez to continue to be a solid fantasy contributor, the low K rate that’s driving his spectacular EYE is due to rise. It’s not as if he’s laying off pitches; his chase percentage is actually currently a career high. He’s just simply managing to make more contact (90.9%) when he swings, but that is probably unsustainable as his career contact rate on swings is just 83.7%.
