Austin Jackson OF (DET) – Jackson went 2-5 last night to raise his average to .308. I’d be willing to bet a lot that his average come year’s end will not be over .300. It’s doubtful that his 29.5 LD% is sustainable, and his EYE is a putrid .24. Jackson strikes out 27.3% of the time and has just 1 homer, which means he needs an amazing amount of balls in play to end up being hits for him to hit .300. So, it’s not surprising to see his singles average currently at .344. That is clearly not sustainable even with the high LD rate, so when that drops, and likely in a significant way, Jackson’s overall average will take a big hit. In 11 games in June, Austin has 10 strikeouts while walking only once, and is not showing any signs of turning that EYE around. He’s a definite sell high candidate.
Cliff Lee SP (SEA) – I don’t think Lee will maintain the 8.32 K/9 he had heading into yesterday’s start, but he strikes out a decent enough batters (over 7 per 9 on average between ’08-’10) that his impeccable control and average GB rate allows him to be one of the game’s best pitchers. Lee didn’t walk a batter over 7 innings last night, and he has walked just 4 batters the entire season! Also, Lee does not give up homers. As stated above, his GB rate is only average, but here are his HR/FB% the past 3 seasons: 5.1/6.5/1.5. It’s certainly extra low this season, but his move to spacious Safeco has something to do with that. Lee may not be the most dominating pitcher in the league, but his ability to not give away free passes and simultaneously keep the ball in the ballpark makes him one of fantasy’s safest bets at SP.
Fausto Carmona SP (CLE) – Last night Carmona displayed dominance and control that we haven’t seen out of him in some time. He struck out 7 while walking none in a complete game performance (1 ER). Unfortunately for Carmona owners, I don’t think it will get better than this. He entered the game with a respectable 3.49 ERA, but they was due to a lot of luck (BABIP 29 points below career average, LOB% 2.9 percentage points higher than career average) as his K/BB ratio sat at a poor 1.19, pretty much what it was last season when he posted a 6.32 ERA. Carmona does have skills (13.8 LD%, 54.9 GB%), but I doubt he can keep his ERA under 4 with his current K/BB ratio once his BABIP and LOB% correct themselves. I think last night’s performance was a bit of an anomaly, and Carmona will go back to walking almost as many as he strikeouts, which will most likely end his current string of quality starts (4) sooner rather than later.
Juan Rivera OF (LAA) – Rivera hit his tenth homer of the season last night. He is a decent source of a power in all formats. He has been putting the ball in the air a lot this season (45.9%), and his career HR/FB% of 13.2% is above average. On top of that, Rivera’s BB% keeps increasing (2.3/5.7/6.3/7.6). If you are in need of power, grab Rivera. The .237 batting average might scare some away, but he is a safe power option with some BA upside due to his .188 singles average (.263/.250/.192/.242 the previous 4 seasons).
Bobby Jenks RP (CHW) – Jenks gave up a run in the 9th inning last night, but he still managed to convert his 11th save and strike out 2 batters. As Drew mentioned about a week ago, Jenks has been very unlucky this season and could have a good run of appearances as things start to even out. His BABIP is 116 points above his career average! Also, his LOB% is 3.1 percentage points lower than his career average, while his HR/FB% of 14.3% is 4.4 percentage points above his career average. That mean Jenks has been unlucky in the three categories that most effect ERA, yet he has weathered that storm thus far thanks to 11.12 K/9. Look for that ERA to begin falling soon.
