May 6, 2010 - NL Fantistics Blog
1. Dexter Fowler (OF - Rockies) - Dexter Fowler has largely been a disappointment through the first 5 weeks of the season, but he is coming around. He's 5-for-19 through the first five days of may (.333) with 2 BB and a SB in 3 attempts. Last April, Fowler got off to a hot start, hitting .290 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, 9 SB, and a 12:8 K:BB rate. This April wasn't quite as good, hitting .256 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 SB, and a 17:11 K:BB rate. Fowler is only 24 and you can tell he's still going through some big-league growing pains as he adjusts to the level of play. When all is said and done, Fowler will emerge as a big time base stealer for sure, but it will be highly dependent on his ability to reach the next OBP tier. He's on my mixed-league watch list, but that's where he'll stay until he can start cutting down on the K's.
2. Raul Ibanez (OF - Phillies) - The calendar has turned to May and Ibanez is still cold. Time to worry? Yes, but not time to panic (that'll be a post 2 weeks from now if he remains cold). He's hitting just .224 on the season with 1 HR, 12 RBI, .337 OBP, and an overall OPS of .701. This is a guy who is hitting smack-dab in the middle of one of the most protected lineups in the game and should be getting plenty of good pitches to hit. Ibanez isn't exactly a notoriously slow starter. In fact, one of his best months of the season lsat year was in April. Furthermore, his AB/HR is anything but consisntent. Last year he averaged a rate of 14.7, the best of his career and a large improvement from 27.3 and 27.6 in the previous two seasons. Moving from Safeco to Citizens Bank (and the aforementioned better lineup) certainly helped, but a reversion to his career AB/HR of about 25.0 may be starting to materialize. One thing is for sure - he has 20+ HR in each of his last 5 seasons and I'd expect him to go on a tear at some point very soon. If you can get him on the cheap, the upside is huge.
3. Placido Polanco (3B - Phillies) - With the names of Utley, Howard, and Werth scaring pitchers in the NL, who would've thought Placido Polanco would have 4 HR already? Polanco has gone entire seasons hitting 4 or less HR let alone averaging an AB/HR of about 20.0. Obviously he is not going to hit you a ton of HR, but the 34 year old Polanco is certainly swinging a powerful bat at HR-happy Citizens Bank. The one concern for Polanco is his OBP is trending at just over .300 and his last 3-year trend dating back to 2007 has gone from .388 (2007), .350 (2008), .331 (2009), and settling at its current rate of .310 so far through the first 25+ games of 2010. He has only walked three times, or to think about it a little differently, about 2.5% of all plate appearances are resulting in walks. Compare that to his 2005-2009 rate of 5.3% and you see a major reason why his OBP has been dropping.
4. Carlos Lee (OF - Astros) - Guess who is finally on the homer board? On Cinco de Mayo, El Caballo finally went yard and he did it in style - a walk-off HR against the Diamondbacks. Lee has obviously been in a tremendous slump, but this is a good first step to get back on the right path. Lee saw a drop in his AB/HR rate to 23.5 last year from 19.6 and 15.6 in the previous two seasons, but he was still a big HR threat. He has 11 straight seasons of 24+ HR and my bet is that he goes on a tear now and gets back on that pace for 2010 as well.
5. Ted Lilly (SP - Cubs) - Don't give up on Lilly. He had another non-QS outing, giving up 4 ER in 6 IP against the Pirates on Wednesday, allowing 9 hits while only striking out two in a losing effort. His record is now 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Lilly is still working through some cob webs and only has 3 appearances under his belt after getting a late start to the season. It wasn't that long ago that Lilly had another terrible start to the season (2008). If you recall, his ownership dropped that year as well and patient owners grabbed him and enjoyed 16 Wins, a 3.67 ERA, and a K/9 of 8.2 from May 1st onward. Try to stay patient through May.
Follow me on Twitter all season @jribando.
