Josh Willingham – Willingham crushed his 7th HR of the season Saturday and is now hitting .260/.420/.481 with 25 RBI. A cheap source of power, the outfielder owns a career .212 ISO and has tallied 26, 21 and 24 HRs when reaching 500+ plate appearances. This season, Willingham has vastly improved his BB% (18% compared to 12% in ’09) which explains the impressive .420 OBP. Willingham is also swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone but making better contact on these pitches (64% compared to 55% in ’09). Additionally, he’s lowered his K/9 by 2% and his current success is in spite of a 278 BABIP. While Willingham isn’t the sexiest OF option, right now he’s producing well enough to warrant consideration as a No. 3 OF in all formats and especially in leagues that use OBP instead of BA.
Carlos Villanueva – After tossing a perfect inning in his first Save opportunity Thursday, Villanueva blew the Save against the Twins Saturday by yielding an RBI double to Delmon Young in the 9th inning. He then loaded the bases and fell behind Denard Span 3-0 before inducing a fly out to end the frame. The Brewers’ bullpen is an absolute trainwreck right now. With Trevor Hoffman working on his mechanics, Villanueva, who has an impressive 29/9 K/BB and 3.18 ERA in ’10, had the chance to seize the closer’s role for good. But if he has any more outings like yesterday’s, look for manager Ken Macha to return the 9th inning duties to Hoffman or allow youngster John Axford a chance at closing. Keep in mind Villanueva has a career FIP of 4.46 so there’s a good chance his early-season success won’t hold up whether or not he’s the closer.
Matt Capps – Saturday was just another day at the office for Matt Capps. The Nationals’ closer pitched a perfect 9th to secure his 16th Save of 2010 while lowering his ERA and WHIP to 2.01 and 1.07, respectively. During his two best seasons in 2007 and 2008, Capps posted FIP marks of 3.16 and 3.28 thanks to limiting his HR/9 (0.57 in ’07 and 0.84 in ’08) and BB/9 (1.82 in ’07 and 0.84 in ’08) rates. When he struggled in 2009, the right hander allowed 1.66 HR/9 and walked nearly 3 batters per 9 innings. This season, Capps has yielded just 2 HRs and 2.5 BB/9 in 22 innings of work. As long as he can continue to depress his HR rate and limit the walks, Capps can sustain his success in the 9th inning role for the Nationals. While rookie Drew Storen is the closer of the future, Capps looks capable of keeping his closer’s role for the remainder of 2010.
Troy Tulowitzki – In 2009, Tulowitzki posted an OPS in the .700 range during both April and May before changing gears and tallying four straight 1.000+ OPS months to finish the season with 32 HRs and 92 RBI. With those numbers in mind, Tulo’s fantasy owners should be ecstatic to see the Colorado shortstop homer for the second time in three games Saturday, after hitting just 1 through the team’s first 37 games. With similar BA and OBP numbers to last season (.297/.377 in ’09 compared to .305/.372) and some signs of power (14 doubles), Tulo needs to lower his GB% (49% in ’10 compared to 41% in ’09) and improve his infield fly ball % (21% in ’10 compared to 11% in ’09) in order for the HRs to return on a consistent basis. Once this regression occurs, expect Tulowitzki to drastically increase his current ISO of .130 and transform back into one of the best power hitting shortstops in baseball.
Wandy Rodriguez – The Astros’ left hander labored through 6 innings of work Saturday against the Rays, allowing 3 ER on 4 Walks while striking out 4. Rodriguez worked in and out of trouble all game but managed to pick up the Quality Start. The biggest concern for Rodriguez this season is his drastic decrease in strikeouts as the lefty is only punching out 5.28 batters per 9 after posting 8.58 and 8.46 K/9 marks in ’08 and ’09, respectively. Part of the reason for the K/9 decrease is attributed to Rodriguez lowering his first-pitch strike percentage (58% from 61% in ’08 and ’09). However, Rodriguez has overcome the lack of strikeouts by inducing more ground balls (54% compared to 44% in ’09) and infield fly balls (12% compared to 6% in ’09). It’s hard to believe Rodriguez will continue to struggle missing bats (based his K/9 marks the past two seasons) so he should be a buy-low target.
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