Scott Olsen:
Olsen was absolutely fantastic for the 3rd straight outing. He took a no-hitter through 7 and finished limiting the Braves to just 1 ER on 2 hits and 1 bb, while striking out 8. He now has posted a 26:9 K:BB Ratio in his 28 innings of work this season while posting an FIP below 3.75. Olsen was once a highly regarded prospect but he struggled missing bats and commanding the zone. Those problems appear behind him through the first 5 starts of the season as he’s throwing his change-up and slider more often and with better results. He has taken advantage in the recent hot streak of some struggling offenses (ATL, LAD, FLA), but there’s some intrigue here. I’m still not adding him in 10 team mixed, but 12-14 team and deeper he’s worth a speculative pickup. He’ll get two starts next week, one in a favorable environment against the Mets and the other in a much tougher matchup in Coors against the Rockies.
Nate Schierholtz:
There are a lot of small sample size caveats here but there’s some really nice growth in skill from Nate Schierholtz so far this year. He went 3-3 with another HR on Thursday and is now up to .381 with a 0.88 EYE and a 13.6% XBH Rate. Schierholtz has had a career minor league line of .308/.355/.516 with an 11% XBH Rate. At 26 it’s taken him some time to put it together but the improvements are supported by some a nice jump in skill. He’s swinging at less pitches outside the zone and showing an overall improved contact rate. The improved patience is getting him in more favorable counts and he’s punishing the opposing pitchers with XBH’s. His ballpark and lineup limits him a bit to deep mixed leagues, but he’s worth a speculative pickup for those in need of OF help. In the minors he demonstrated not only good power rates, but a solid batting average despite a far worse EYE. With the improved EYE and power he has the potential to be a .300 hitter at the big league level with 20 HR’s.
Chris Coghlan:
Coghlan was moved back into the leadoff role after Cameron Maybin’s struggles forced the Marlins to look in another direction. He responded with a 1-4 effort that raised his batting average to .183. The reigning NL ROY has shown a horrible erosion in skill this season as his K Rate has balooned to 27% and he’s yet to record an extra base hit. While the first level indicators look horrific, there’s some mild hope for a rebound in Coghlan’s deeper peripherals. His Contact Rate is only down 2% from last season, as the increased K Rate seems to be coming simply from worse pitch recognition and over-aggressiveness. He’s swinging at 13% more pitches out of the zone and 8% more pitches overall. His LD Rate is still solid (25%) but he’s popping the ball up an inordinate amount (21%). Over-aggressiveness coupled with some timing issues are the root of the problem and while they’re resulting in horrible numbers, they are correctable over time. Coghlan’s not going to come anywhere close to his 2009 season, but if you see the K’s start to come down and normalize I’d be inclined to give him a chance on my roster again. For now he belongs on waiver wires in all but NL-Only formats.
Aramis Ramirez:
I know a lot of fantasy analysts tout the “it’s early” line when discussing veterans off to slow starts, but having watched Aramis Ramirez intently for the last 6 years, I can honestly say I’ve never seen any stretch in his career like this. Ramirez has been notorious for slow starts (posting OPS’ right around .800 for the first two months of the season before getting into the .850 range from there on out), but he’s never had this many issues making contact. His K Rate has almost doubled and its not because he’s chasing more pitches. He’s simply making far less contact (down 6%, with much of it coming on balls in the zone – down 8%). Sure there’s plenty of bad luck mixed in (.169 BABIP), but his LD Rate is down and despite an increased FB Rate his HR/FB is way down. The bat speed just doesn’t look there and his AB’s truly look like a man lost. For now I’d try to reserve and hold on as long as I could. The luck indicates there will be a bounce at some point, but I’m not sure how big it will be. At age 32 it looks like his Slugging % will decline for the 7th straight season.
Wandy Rodriguez:
Sometimes the numbers don’t match up with what your eyes are telling you and while most of the time the numbers are right, sometimes the eyes can catch something too. I noted back at the end of April that Wandy’s middling K Rate was a significant concern. The data suggested hitters were making the same amount of contact on Wandy as before, but his swings and misses just weren’t coming with 2 strikes. But my eyes were watching less uncomfortable AB’s in years past and I didn’t see the upside in the K’s coming. Perhaps its because Wandy is throwing his magnificent curveball less, but he continued to struggle on Thursday allowing 9 hits and 1 BB in just 3 2/3 innings against the DBacks. He did strike out 4, still showing the ability to get strikeouts, but he’s obviously become more hittable. If there’s some good news, it’s that only 3 of the base-hits were XBH’s indicating the poor luck he entered the game with (.338 BABIP) continued. For now there are enough statistical indicators (bad luck with BABIP, improving K Rates in last few starts, similar contact rates, improved GB Rate) that I’m sitting tight on Wandy, but there’s little chance I run him out there against the Cardinals next week. He’ll be firmly planted on my bench while I continue to try to figure out the discrepancies between his peripherals and his production.
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