Rickie Weeks:
Weeks is mired in an extended and painful slump as another 0-4 on Thursday dragged his average down to .243 and made him just 20 for his last 109 with 37 K’s in that span. The extremely high K Rate is nothing unusual for Weeks (career 26.7%) and digging in on his swing data you don’t see anything distinguishing his 2010 season. With Weeks having a propensity to swing and miss he’s going to need to generate a fair amount of power to become the star we expected. In 2009 we saw glimpses of the elite power but here in 2010, his ISO has regressed. A 50% GB Rate is at the root of the problem and remains a long-term concern for Weeks owners. At 27 we hoped if he could just stay healthy the breakout would come, but right now the health isn’t the problem; the skills are. Untill he starts hitting more balls in the air, Weeks is going to be a batting average risk that only offers positive contributions in the Runs category.
Roy Oswalt:
I’m sure this story is becoming even more tiring for Roy Oswalt himself, but his owners have to be hoping Oswalt’s openness to a trade this season results in one. Oswalt made it a perfect 9-9 in quality starts on Thursday allowing just 2 ER’s on 3 hits and 3 BB’s while striking out 8. Despite posting his 9th consecutive quality start, Oswalt picked up his 6th loss of the season as the Astros offense once again generated 0 runs for him. The soon-to-be 33 year old deserves far better. He’s ressurected his K Rate, (2nd best K Rate of his career) thanks to a renewed willingness to throw his “Bugs Bunny” changeup and his command remains elite. Unfortunately the Astros offense is preventing Oswalt from being the high-end #2 fantasy SP that he’s pitched like.
Manny Ramirez:
Manny sat out his 2nd consecutive game on Thursday as he continues to deal with a toe injury. Masked by a .377 BABIP an excellent EYE (1.70) is the fact that Manny’s power numbers have dwindled back to the 2007-2008 levels with the Red Sox. Part of this is due to an increased GB Rate (46%), but a larger part of it is simply due to Ramirez’s power declining at age 38. This decline was in place before Ramirez came over to the Dodgers but the move to the NL coupled with a positive test for steroids suggest Ramirez’s boost wasn’t legitimate. Once the batting average normalizes we’re looking at a .310-70-20-80 type line for Ramirez. It certainly has value and he should be owned everywhere, but owners viewing Ramirez as a solid #2-#3 OF need to readjust their expectations. At 38 Manny is in fast decline.
Chris Narveson:
Narveson improved to 4-1 on Thursday with 6 solid innings against the Pirates. He allowed 7 hits and 1 bb, while yielding 3 ER’s. He struck out just 2, but recorded 11 ground outs. For the season he’s shown really improved K Rates (nearly 1 per inning) and given the high K Rates he posted at times in the minors (career 7.5 K/9) perhaps he can keep this up. I remain a bit skeptical as the high BB Rate (4.5 BB/9) coupled with a history of being pretty hittable (8.9 H/9 at major league level, 8.3 H/9 at minor league level) makes me think there’s more risk than upside for Narveson. In NL Only leagues he’s got control of a rotation spot on a thin Brewers pitching staff and he’s showing solid K Rates so he’s worth a flier, but I certainly don’t view him like some of the other surprising starters in the NL (Ian Kennedy, Tom Gorzelanny) as long-term options for mixed.
Mike Leake:
As I wrote last week, Mike Leake’s peripherals continue to catch up to his performance. On Thursday he shut down the Braves with 6 strong innings, allowing just 1 ER on 5 hits and 1 bb, while striking out 6. He’s now walked just 9 batters in his last 39 innings, while striking out 31 during that span. All the while his GB Rate continues to improve, entering yesterday’s start at a sparkling 53%. His stuff isn’t overpowering but he moves the ball in and out and has tremendous command. As I mentioned in my last post, I really don’t like laying comparisons on young pitchers but I haven’t seen someone approach hitters the way Leake does this young, since Greg Maddux. There will inevitably be some regression (.245 BABIP) and some bumps in the road, but I think Leake makes for a nice #4 starter in traditional mixed formats. I view his 2010 value very similarly to Hiroki Kuroda.
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