Travis Snider - Snider is heating up, adding three more singles last night to make him 11-20 (with 5 XBH) in his last five games. Despite Snider's slow start to the year, his peripherals are loaded with positive signs. His walk rate is up significantly, his K rate has dropped a ton from last year, his ISO continues to increase, his BABIP is about 140 points lower than expected given his LD%, and his contact% is up almost six points. I know he's only 22, but I remain convinced that his stardom is imminent.
Austin Jackson - Austin Jackson has been on fire of late, hitting 18-36 with only three K's during his eight-game hit streak. Yes, he has a BABIP of .512, but what impresses me a heck of a lot more is that his LD% is hovering near 40%, which means that his BABIP is actually pretty justifiable right now. I'm not suggesting it'll stay there, because there's no way that it will simply because no one hits 40% line drives. All I'm saying is he's hot, and luck isn't really playing into it very much. I'm not sure how much power is going to show up, but AVG and speed appear to be positives for him, and his walk rate is a bit more promising (above 8%) than I expected it to be this early. To put it in left-handed compliment form, I'm optimistic that regression will be less painful than most people are.
Grady Sizemore - Is it time to worry yet? Sizemore has been awful one month into the season, posting a line of 220/282/320 with a career high K-rate and career lows in BB rate, ISO, and contact%. Sure it's just a month, but he's so far from his career norm and on the heels of a subpar 2009 that it's certainly time to be concerned. According to Baseball Prospectus, his number 1 comparable player is Lloyd Moseby, a CF for the Jays that had his best seasons at age 23 and 24 and was out of baseball at age 31. Ouch. Sizemore's best years so far were at 23 and 25, and he's now 27 with what appear to be diminishing skills. There's certainly still hope for a rebound...after all, he's 27. If I had to put a likelihood on a return to his 2006 or 2008 form, however, I wouldn't put it higher than 25-30%.
Zack Greinke - Greinke tossed his fourth straight quality start last night, this time against the Rangers, but suffered yet another loss to drop to 0-4 on the year despite a 2.51 ERA. There are a few things that I'm concerned about with Greinke, even though his peripherals have still been very sound despite the lack of wins. Greinke's velocity, K rate, and contact% against are all significantly worse through the first month of the year, and while it hasn't manifested itself to any great extent in terms of hits and runs allowed just yet, I'm slightly worried that it might soon. Just food for thought...even a slightly less effective Greinke is still a must-start in all formats.
C.J. Wilson - The C.J. Wilson train kept on rolling last night, as Wilson threw his sixth straight quality start in leading the Rangers to a 4-1 win over the Royals. Wilson is succeeding despite spotty control so far this year, mostly due to a stellar GB% (57.1) and LOB% (82.4). He also hasn't allowed a triple or a homer so far this year (and only four doubles), so with all singles and walks he's been able to succeed despite only slightly better than average peripherals. There's going to be some regression, but he has been solid enough through his first six starts to expect him to maintain at least league average statistics once things level out, which is a lot more than I would have expected to see two months ago.
