Rich Harden (SP—Rangers) Rich Harden is one of those pitchers who seems to be developing a case of Ollie-itis. You know, Oliver Perez disease where you never know if “Good Ollie” or “Bad Ollie” will show up. While I hate to diagnose Harden with that particular ailment, there's no denying that it's been an up and down ride this season. However, Harden has put together two solid starts in a row (one very good one) and still has amazing strikeout potential with 9.10 K/9. The control will continue to be an issue for Harden as he leads the A.L. In walks with 23. Despite a relatively good ERA of 3.52, Harden's FIP is much higher at 5.51 largely due to the base on balls issue. Also his FB% is scary high at 51%, but the good part about Harden is that he does have the ability to strike batters out to support a high fly ball percentage, but even that high is playing with fire. Because of Harden's risk for injury, he is a dicey option overall and his ability to work deep into games may effect his ability to qualify for wins as Harden hasn't made it through the 5 innings in half the games he's started. It's a classic high-risk/high-reward scenario, but the dominance of Harden's performance against Oakland on Monday is reason to start paying close attention to him. His next start comes against Kansas City, so it's a good matchup where Harden could produce strong results
Dallas Braden (SP—A's) Dallas Braden is starting to become noticed by fantasy owners with 75% ownership in CBS leagues. It's no wonder since 5 out of 6 of his starts have been quality starts. His ERA is a bit on the high side with a 4.14 ERA which is primarily due to one bad outing against Tampa Bay where he gave up 6 ER in 4 innings. Taking away that one start, Braden's ERA would be sitting at 3.00. Despite 10 strikeouts in his first outing, Braden is typically not a strikeout pitcher but he does possess good control with a BB/9 of 1.70. A large part of Braden's success this season has been his ability to induce batters to swing at pitches out of the zone at a rate of 32% which is up by almost 9% over last season. If you happen to be in a league that hasn't clued into Braden, he is worth a pick up as he has been pretty reliable the majority of the time.
Carlos Quentin (OF—White Sox) Confession time: The beginning of the season I had Carlos Quentin as one of my sleeper picks for a bounce back year. Well, so far it hasn't turned out to be one of my better prediction so far this season and while I'm not ready to wave the white flag of surrender, I am wondering what is going on with him and whether he will be able to recapture his 2008 form. After suffering through 2009 with a BHIP of .221 and a pretty decent LD% of 16.3%, one could make a case for Quentin being unlucky (although that LD% is still low). But if Quentin's BHIP was low last year, how is it possible he has only been able to manage a BHIP this year of .154? Ugh. Unlucky? Not if your LD%is only 11.6%. That's just plain awful. The last 16 games Quentin is batting just .113 and despite 2 home runs during that time, manager Ozzie Guillen has dropped Quentin down to 6th in the lineup with hopes of reducing some of the pressure. With a RAR (runs above replacement player) of -3.7, it's obvious that you can throw any outfielder in your lineup and get better production. For now, leave Quentin in your reserves until he figures this extended slump out.
Shin-Soo Choo (OF—Indians) Shin-Soo Choo went 2-for-5 Tuesday night against the White Sox and raised his average on the year to .309. His OBP stands at an amazing .422 with 5 home runs and 5 stolen bases. Not the biggest name out there, but certainly Choo has been one of the most productive with a wOBA of .393. As high as I am on Choo, a word of caution because there are a couple of red flags that indicates that some regression could be heading Choo's way. His BHIP is sitting at a very high .393, good for 2nd in the major leagues, and his LD% is at 19% which would indicate that he has been getting a little lucky and may slide a little in the not too distant future. Even his BHIP on LD is very high with him batting .917 ever time he hits a liner. WOW! Still Choo remains a most start as he has been an asset in almost every offensive category despite playing the the struggling Indians.
Nick Johnson (DH—Yankees) It hasn't exactly been the greatest start to Nick Johnson's season. Through May 3rd, he only has 9 hits on the season and is batting .134, Four of his nine hits have been for extra bases but he has managed an very good OBP of .363 which is remarkable when you consider his batting average. Johnson is an OBP machine with an excellent EYE of 1.0. Despite, Johnson's struggles getting hits, there is some good news for those that have stuck with him and for those that are perhaps looking to pick someone up. Johnson could be on the verge of a hot streak. Johnson has been pretty unlucky with a BHIP of .182 because his LD% is at 22.2%. This line drive percentage is right in line with Nick Johnson's career LD% average of 21.2% and Johnson has a career BHIP of .308 so it simply doesn't make sense that Johnson current BHIP is not ready for a jump. After all, how long can a guy hit line drives with only 60% of them landing for base hits? Yes, this is an official unlucky alert and Johnson could be a nice player to add to your team as he is due to get hot.
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