Daisuke Matsuzaka – Dice-K continues to be one of the biggest free agent signing busts in recent memory. The right hander took the hill against the Yankees on Monday and proceeded to allow 7 ER in just 4 2/3 innings as his ERA ballooned to 7.89. In four starts this season, Matsuzaka has yielded at least 5 ER three times and struck out more than 4 batters just once. After an outstanding 2008 season, Matsuzaka struggled last year because he walked too many hitters (4.55 BB/9), allowed a ridiculous number of HRs (1.52 HR/9) and recorded an ugly 1.87 WHIP. While he’s improved upon those numbers so far this year (how couldn’t he?), Matsuzaka is still yielding more than 1 HR and walking more than 3 walks per game. You might try to justify starting Matsuzaka because of his impressive K/9 mark of 8.47 entering Monday’s start, but that’s more a product of a low innings count (due to high pitch counts and poor performance) rather than missing a lot of bats.
Justin Morneau – After flirting with .400 for much of 2009, Joe Mauer may not even post the highest BA on his own team in 2010. That’s because Justin Morneau is scorching the ball through the first six weeks of the season and was besting Mauer in the BA department .362 to .349 prior to Monday’s game. Morneau continued his hot hitting by smashing HRs No. 10 and No. 11 Monday en route to going 3-for-4 to raise his BA to a crisp .374. The big left hander has always been a great power hitter but he’s topped the .300 BA mark just twice – in 2006 and 2008 – and with a BABIP of .407 (compared to his career mark of .292), it’s very likely Morneau’s BA regresses in the coming months. Enjoy the power numbers but expect Morneau to finish 2010 with an OPS closer to .900 and a BA slightly under .300 to go along with 30 HRs and 110 RBI – excellent numbers for any first baseman.
Scott Kazmir – Once upon a time, there was a pitcher who struck out 239 batters in 206 IP, posted a 3.45 FIP, boasted a 10.41 K/9, allowed just 0.78 HR/9 and started 34 games. His name was Scott Kazmir and the year was 2007. The left hander who started for the Angels’ Monday night is a far, far cry from the guy who looked to be a perennial All Star just three seasons ago. Entering Monday with a 6.82 ERA and 5.64 BB/9, Kazmir yielded 4 ER in 7 innings against the Rangers and picked up his 4th loss. With a K/9 rate that’s declined for 3 straight seasons and a fastball that averages just 90.1 mph (compared to 92.1 in ’07), Kazmir’s numbers have been trending in the wrong direction for too long. At this point, it’s hard to justify a roster spot for the left hander who is un-startable in any league format because of an inability to pitch effectively deep into games and keep runners off base.
Jonathan Papelbon – Spotted a 2-run cushion to start the 9th against the Yankees Monday, Papelbon imploded. He allowed a leadoff double to Brett Gardner, a long flyout to Mark Teixiera, a game-tying, 2-run HR to Alex Rodriguez, a deep flyout to Robinson Cano and hit Francisco Cervelli with a pitch before Marcus Thames crushed a walk-off, 2-run HR to left field. All said, Papelbon recorded 2 outs and allowed 2 HRs and 4 ER in picking up the loss in grand fashion. Through 18 IP prior to Monday’s disaster, Papelbon had posted a K/9 of just 6.87 and witnessed his BB/9 reach 4.42 – well above his career 2.45 mark. While he did have a sparkling 1.47 ERA and 9 Saves in his first 16 games, Papelbon’s FIP was 3.75 and he benefited from an unsustainable .193 BABIP. I said it earlier this season and I’ll say it again – Papelbon is not the same dominant closer he once was.
Kevin Slowey – From now on, when a starter throws 5 innings and allows 3 ER, it’s called “throwing a Slowey.” For the fifth time this season, Slowey worked into the 5th inning and allowed 3 ER before being pulled. On Monday he picked up his 5th win -- despite an ERA of 4.70 -- by beating the Blue Jays 8-3. Slowey’s 2010 season has been very similar to his 2009 except for an increased BB/9 rate of 2.77. He’s striking out the same number of batters (7.44 K/9 in ’09 compared to 7.15 K/9 this season) and his FIP is nearly identical (4.26 in ’09 compared to 4.43 this season). He’s just good enough to tempt you into starting him and just bad enough to make you regret you did.
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