Gavin Floyd SP (CHW) - Floyd is a bit of an enigma. Last season his 4.06 ERA didn’t indicate how well he pitched as his xFIP was 3.69 thanks to a solid 2.76 K/BB ratio. This season his K/9 has not increased as I anticipated, but it is still above average at 7.20. Meanwhile his GB% has improved to a well above average 50% mark. Once again, though, his ERA (7.00) is not close to his xFIP (4.22). Well, Floyd is suffering from some bad luck. His BABIP of .381 is well above his career mark of .298. His LOB% of 57.2% is extremely low and is 11.1 percentage points below his career mark. While Floyd, for whatever reason, may never see his performance truly reflect his peripherals, his ERA and WHIP should drop as his BABIP and LOB% normalize, and yesterday’s quality start was a good starting point for that to begin happening.
Scott Kazmir SP (LAA) - Scott Kazmir turned in a quality start yesterday against the Cardinals, earning his 3rd victory of the season, but he did not pitch all that great. He struck out 5 in 7 IP while walking 3 and allowing his fair share of fly balls, although he was burned by just one homer. Kazmir had a lot of potential at one point (and still does in some people’s eyes), but arm issues and control problems have derailed the path he was once on that seemed to have him destined to be a top of the line starter. Rather, his career is headed in the opposite direction. Here are his K/9 since 2006, including this season: 10.14/10.41/9.81/7.15/6.75. Here are his BB/9 over the same time period: 3.24/3.88/4.14/3.67/4.82. His HR/9 the past three seasons (1.38/.98/1.45) are all higher than his career mark (which takes into account those three seasons) of .93. I never thought I’d be saying this as I was once a huge Kazmir backer, but I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see his final ERA above 5. He was once glowing with potential, but now he’s a pitcher who still has control problems, only he strikes out a lot less people and gives up more homers.
Carlos Pena 1B (TB) - Pena hit a couple homeruns the other night, but I’m not so sure that owners should be too excited about a possible turnaround just yet. The book on aging power hitters with high K rates is not good. See the decline of David Ortiz and the criticisms of the Ryan Howard deal for more details on that. In Pena’s specific case, his batting average has tumbled the past few years. While that was never his strong suit, Pena hit .282 in 2007. Since then, it has been a steady decline: .247/.227/.190. Not surprisingly his EYE is also declining since ’07 (it was .73 that year), albeit not quite as dramatically: .58/.53/.51. Pena clearly has power (career 20.2 HR/FB%), but he has not been consistent as demonstrated by the fact he has never had two consecutive seasons with a HR/FB% over 20 percent. If he was over 20 percent this season, that would make two years in a row. On top of that, Pena’s GB% has grown by twelve percentage points since last season, as his FB% has dipped from 54.1% to 47% and LD% from 16.8% to 12%. Pena is an absolute killer in roto leagues, as he’ll struggle to top .230, and with diminishing power there’s not likely to be much of a turnaround for Pena in the near future.
Neftali Feliz CP (TEX) – This just in: Neftali Feliz = stud. Feliz nailed down his 12th save of the year two days ago and lowered his ERA to 3.22. What is amazing about Feliz is that for a guy who throws so hard at such a young age, his control is impeccable. He has walked just 4 batters all season (2 came in his first start of the year), which is good for a BB/9 of 1.61. Feliz’s control clearly doesn’t have an impact on his dominance as evidenced by his 9.27 K/9. Control is important to all pitchers, but especially for Feliz. He is so FB risky (54.2 FB%) that he is due to give up a long ball here and there. However, with Feliz’s control, more often than not those are going to be solo shots rather than back breaking 3-run homers.
John Lackey SP (BOS) – Unfortunately for Lackey owners, any unbiased evaluator can’t chalk up his current 5.07 ERA to rotten luck or something of the sort, as his strand rate BABIP are in line with his career averages. In fact, Lackey’s actual ERA is identical to his FIP. Rather, Lackey is striking out fewer batters than ever before (5.56/9) and simultaneously walking more than ever before (4.25/9). Something’s not right here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a DL trip on the horizon with Lackey. This drop off in his peripheral stats is sudden, as he has been extremely consistent the past few years and, frankly, for his whole career. I’m not sure where his velocity is at, but his stuff can’t be as sharp as in years past. He’s still getting hitters to chase pitches at an above average rate, but what is disturbing is the amount of contact opposing hitters have been able to make when chasing Lackey’s pitches. That amount is 70% of the time, which is a whopping 13.2 percentage points above his career average.
