Justin Smoak 1B (TEX) – As we’ve noted all along in this space since the Smoak call up, he should be owned in all leagues. That is still the case, despite the fact that Smoak entered yesterday’s contest with a lowly .186 batting average. Smoak’s peripherals have actually been very solid for any player, let alone a first time major leaguer. He has an outstanding EYE of 1 as his walk and strikeout totals are even. His LD% of 22.4% is solid, and his 41.4 FB% and .214 ISO indicate sustainable power now and on the horizon. His extremely unlucky .120 singles average is as much to blame for Smoak's early "struggles" as anything else. Scoop him up if the rest of your league members have been impatient in evaluating the young Texas slugger.
Ricky Romero SP (TOR) – Romero was dominant yesterday afternoon, as he threw the first shutout of his career. Romero struck out 12 Rangers’ batters and walked just 1. Back on April 19th, our own Drew Dinkmeyer touted Romero as the “buy-high” type. Hopefully people listened. Romero’s peripherals are elite. After yesterday’s 12 K performance, his strikeouts now exceed his IP. Meanwhile, the balls that he does allow into play are mostly of the ground ball variety as evidenced by Romero’s spectacular 57.1 GB%. Frankly, Romero’s peripherals line up right with one of the league’s best pitchers, Ubaldo Jimenez. Now Romero’s stuff isn’t as electric as Jimenez’s, but their K rates, BB rates and GB rates are nearly identical to one another. You wouldn’t sell high on Jimenez, and you shouldn’t sell high on Romero either.
Andy Pettitte SP (NYY) – Despite walking 3 batters while striking out only 2, Pettitte ended up tossing 6.1 innings of scoreless baseball in picking up the victory against the Twins yesterday. The performance was very indicative of how Pettitte’s season has been: lucky. Pettitte’s current 5-0 record and 1.79 ERA are not supported by his 1.8 K/BB ratio. Expect runs to start piling up against Pettitte in the near future when his BABIP, HR/FB% and LOB% all normalize. Entering yesterday’s game, Pettitte’s BABIP was 30 points below his career average. His HR/FB% was 7 percentage points lower than his career mark, and his LOB% was 12.3 percentage points higher than his career mark. This is a recipe for impending disaster, and I recommend selling high on Pettitte as soon as possible.
Alberto Callaspo 2B/3B (KC) – The preseason Fantistics projection system was much more optimistic in regards to Callaspo than many other publications. Hopefully you paid attention and grabbed him late if you were in need of a middle infielder. His current .310 AVG and .439 SLG are supported by his career 91.3% contact rate, .95 EYE and upward trending ISO’s (.066/.156/.197). He is a legitimate .300 hitter with developing power. Sometimes cheap, end of the draft type middle infielders without speed tend to get overlooked, but don’t make that mistake with Callaspo.
Mitch Talbot SP (CLE) – Mitch Talbot is now responsible for more than a third of the Cleveland Indians’ wins, as his 8 inning quality start last night pushed his own record to 5-2. Not bad for a guy who entered the year with 1 career start and 0 wins. Talbot gave up 2 earned runs en route to his victory, but his K:BB ratio on the day was a measly 3:2. Despite the nice record and ERA (now 3.23), I would suggest looking elsewhere if you need SP help. Talbot currently has just 19 strikeouts in 47.1 IP, and his walks exceed his strikeouts. He has a good GB%, but that is not enough to outweigh his other awful peripherals. It’s luck, rather than skill, that is driving his success on the surface. Talbot entered last night’s game with a .234 BABIP and 78.3% LOB%; when those numbers correct themselves, the wins will stop while the ERA and WHIP rise steadily.
