Joel Pineiro:
Our own Thomas Massimo suggested Pineiro was due for some positive regression in this space earlier in the week and sure enough Pineiro tossed a complete game shutout on Sunday to get his numbers back in line. He relied on his usual good command (1 BB, 62 of 98 pitches for strikes) and stroung GB Rate (15 ground outs) to shutout the A’s. The strong outing lowered his ERA to 3.71 and his WHIP to 1.31. The ERA is about right for our expectation going forward with Pineiro, but the WHIP should have some further downward movement. He entered the game with a .347 BABIP against and this outing should get that back down into the high .320’s. Once it normalizes closer to .300, the WHIP will drive back down into the low 1.2’s. He won’t blow you away with K’s but he works efficiently and thus deep into games providing decent W potential and he should help in ratio categories. He’s a solid back-end rotation starter in mixed formats.
Alex Rios:
Rios continues to work towards a career year, knocking out his 7th HR of the season on Sunday in a 3-4 effort. I noted last week in this space Rios’ growing FB Rate that was leading to an expansion in his power numbers and we’re continuing to see that play out. His 13% HR/FB Rate is right around league average as is his .311 BABIP. There’s absolutely no luck driving this breakout and along with the improved power rates, Rios has become more aggressive on the basepaths. Combing 1B’s and BB’s, Rios has been on 1B approximately (not counting FC’s) 30 times, and he’s attempted 15 SB’s. For his career this rate has been around 20%. His confidence with the bat appears to be carrying over on the basepaths and with a 80% success rate, we’re looking at a run towards a 30-30 season.
Jason Bartlett:
Thankfully the Rays are winning a lot of games and BJ Upton is struggling just as well, otherwise the magnifying glass would be on Jason Bartlett. After another 0-4 effort on Sunday Bartlett’s 2010 line dropped to an abysmal .236/.313/.326. His K and BB Rates are in line with last year’s breakout, he’s actually improved his Contact Rate, but his ISO is way down and back to pre-2009 levels. As we mentioned earlier in the year the 2009 ISO was an anomaly on Bartlett’s statistical profile and the current .093 is much more likely going forward. He’s had a bit of bad luck on balls in play (.280 BABIP) and once that reverts we’d expect something closer to his usual pre-’09 .280/.335/.360. The question is, will that be good enough to hold onto the leadoff role? I’m not so sure. The decreased AB’s and Run potential would supress Bartlett’s value further and at this point I think owners may need to treat him as the way they did before 2009, largely fantasy irrelevant.
Travis Snider:
Snider missed his 2nd consecutive game on Sunday but the Blue Jays expect him back in the lineup on Monday. Schuyler and I have been touting Snider’s breakout for the past few weeks (Schuyler with the blurbs, me with the tweets), but it still appears to be flying under the radar. Snider’s still striking out quite a bit (in about 25% of his AB’s), but he’s actually cut it down from last year. In addition he’s bumped his ISO up over .240 thanks to a tremendous 12.3% XBH Rate. There are some indicators contrary to Snider’s breakout, specifically a high 44% GB Rate for a power hitter and a 24% HR/FB Rate, but I tend to think the improved plate discipline (3% less swings outside the zone, 3% improved contact rate) and improved XBH Rate is real. Most don’t realize how elite of a prospect Snider is/was but his career .916 OPS in the minors came while young for most of his levels. I’m a big believer and rostering Snider wherever I can. Maybe at 22 his high K and GB Rates will catch up with him, but I’ll take that chance when the upside is as great as Adam Lind’s breakout last season.
Brennan Boesch:
Boesch extended his hitting streak to 7 games on Sunday with a 1-4 effort and has now hit safely in 16 of the 19 games he’s played in. Boesch has come out of nowhere the last two years as an all or nothing type power hitter. After posting sub-.700 OPS at the lower levels he put together an .826 OPS last season at AA and then got off to a red hot start at AAA this year hitting .379/.455/.621. That hot start has continued upon promotion where Boesch’s 2010 line stands at: .380/.392/.676. Can it be sustained? A closer look at his peripherals show Boesch is benefiting from some tremendous luck; as a .426 BABIP is really driving the batting average upward. He’s posted a miniscule EYE of 0.18 and is swinging at over 50% of the pitches outside the zone. While he’s posted an exceptional .313 ISO, it’s unsustainable as well. There’s reason to be excited by the hot stretch for the young player, but there’s a lot more reason for concern over his long-term viability. In AL-only leagues he’s appeared to secure playing time (Tigers are planning on shifting Carlos Guillen to 2B, cutting Scott Sizemore’s playing time) and desvers attention, but in mixed formats I think he’s best left to someone else.
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