Delmon Young:
It’s been really quiet, but Delmon Young looks like he’s starting to put things together. Young’s cut his K Rate in half (down to 11%) and quadrupled his walk rate (up over 8%). Suddenly he’s sporting a relatively healthy .80 EYE. While the plate discipline has improved, the power continues to grow as his ISO is improving for the third straight season (up to .183). He’s only hitting .267 but that’s largely due to a BABIP below .275. Once that normalizes, Young’s average should vault back up over .300 and with growing power he could be looking at a nice run at 20-20. He’s spending most of his time in the 6th and 7th hole right now and hitting behind traditionally decent OBP guys like Cuddyer/Kubel/Thome he should see plenty of RBI opportunities. It’s going to happen rather quickly but all of the sudden you’re going to look up and see Young hitting .300 with double digit HR’s and double digit steals in the middle of the year and wonder how? He’s been considered a bust for so long that people forget he’s still just 24. Perhaps he won’t live up to the lengthy expectations of a #1 overall prospect, but he can be a solid .850 OPS guy through his prime. He looks like a perfect example of a post-hype sleeper and I think owners in all leagues should hop aboard now. I envision a .300-75-17-85-15 season.
White Sox Closer:
After Bobby Jenks implosion on Sunday in which he allowed 4 hits and 3 ER’s, including a 3 Run HR to Fred Lewis, Ozzie Guillen indicated the White Sox “have a lot of options” for that role going forward. This certainly is the case as Matt Thornton has been an elite RP for some time, JJ Putz has shown good K:BB Ratios in his return this season, and converted infielder Sergio Santos has been perhaps the biggest surprise of the season, allowing just 1 ER in his first 12 1/3 innings while posting a 16:5 K:BB Ratio. Now Jenks has actually pitched better than his results this year boosting his K Rate and GB Rate, but a .440 BABIP and HR/FB north of 20% is giving him job security concerns. Should Guillen turn to someone else my guess is Thornton would get the first opportunity, but that would leave Randy Williams as the only LH non-closer in the pen. As a result Guillen may prefer to turn to Putz, who has the experience and would allow Thornton to be deployed against elite LH’s. I don’t think Santos is in the mix yet, because I can’t imagine they’d bypass more experienced relievers to hand that role to a guy in his first year pitching. If speculating for saves here I’m picking up Thornton as I don’t think Santos gets a chance and Putz has had poor enough results (though pitching well) that the dominant Thornton may get the first shot. At this point, there’s little clarity if a switch will be made and even if so who it would be, but if I had to guess Thornton is the guy I’m grabbing for now. We’ll keep you updated as the situation progresses.
Jon Lester:
While Lester was getting battered during his first 3 starts of the season, I kept reiterating I wasn’t concerned and it was simply a nice buy low opportunity for Lester. Since then he’s rewarded my faith by allowing just 2 ER’s over his next 27 2/3 innings and going 3-0 during that span with a magnificent 30:10 K:BB Ratio during that span. Just like that his ERA is back down to 3.71 and his WHIP down to 1.24. With an elite K Rate and improved GB Rate (up to 57% this season), Lester remains one of the most skilled pitchers in all of baseball. I continue to see him as an Ace that others value as a high-end #2 SP.
Jose Lopez:
Lopez has been awful this season as evidenced by the fact a 2-5 effort on Sunday raised his line to .222/.250/.294. The .294 Slugging % is at the root of Lopez’s problems as the 10.3% XBH Rate Lopez posted last year has dipped back down to 4.7% this season. Since Lopez doesn’t run and plays in a tough park for power, most of his value is derived from gap power and lineup positioning, with the power down and Chone Figgins struggling to get on-base in front of Lopez, he’s notched just 12 RBI’s so far this season. While I’m concerned the power hasn’t showed up at all, it’s worth noting Lopez was sitting at .219/.260/.339 on May 30th last season and finished at .272/.303/.463. The good news is Lopez has picked up 2B’s in consecutive games so perhaps the power is starting to show up. Given his track record and the fact he started slow last season I’m inclined to wait this out. At 26 his power should be growing and when all is said and done I think a 20 HR-90 RBI season is still there for him.
Dallas Braden:
Braden was the story of the day yesterday as he pitched the 19th perfect game in major league baseball history. Braden’s gotten far more attention this year for his feud with Alex Rodriguez than his performance on the mound, but he’s taken some nice steps forward. He’s further improved his command, now becoming a true command specialist (7 BB’s in 46 IP, 1.36 BB/9) and improving his GB Rate to over 40%. His skill-set is well suited to pitching in the Coliseum (whose isn’t? Well guys who BB people) as demonstrated by a career ERA one full run less at home. He’s still just a spot-start type option, but he’s now 5-5 in QS when at home with a 2.00 ERA. At the very least he’s a back-end guy who won’t hurt when pitching at home. But that doesn’t matter much because from now on he’ll be the 19th pitcher in history to throw a perfect game (and oddly the 2nd one against the Rays in the last two years).
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